例解交易是综合艺术

来源: FreeTrader 于 2012-09-16 08:38:58 [档案] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读：次 (3591 bytes)

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例解交易是综合艺术

Trading is a comprehensive package.

即使有了自己有效的交易系统，应用时，还需Enrich经验、交易信号可靠度等无法精确量化的内容。在这篇文章中曾较系统地分析过：

交易知识和经验的应用
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/47609/201008/5094.html

For example, I didn't do any trade from the end of Jan 2012 to the end of Jul 2012. Part of the reason is that I was in China and wasn't able to follow the market closely. But this is not the main reason, which is that I was not confident enough to make trades based on my reading at the market.

From early Feb to late April, my reading at the market was wrong. But I had no cost because I didn't trade since I knew that it was not confident enough. From the end of April and early May, I was confident enough to short the market but I didn't find good targets, so didn't do anything either although the market reading was perfect.

在2012年7月，美国市场上的中国概念股遭到大资金系统性的强力打压。其中以EDU为甚，股价两天之内跌了60%.解读这种情况，有以下几个方面：
1，中国概念股现在是市场热点，盘面和盘外也配合相当专业；
2，大资金的空仓不是现在才入的，而是早已经就入了；
3，现在强力打压，有两种可能：一是要回补空仓，二是吸筹；具体如何，要根据个股的形态判断，比如EDU应该是回补空仓；
4，这不过是大主力运作和操盘的手段，如何利用这种情况寻找操作机会？

只有两种操作机会，做多和做空。既然主力布局做空的时候没有能跟上，那么，现在跟进做空风险已然太大，特别是类似EDU已经不具有做空条件，该股的图形表明后市最大的可能是在低位盘整，且低位长时间盘整后，也方向不明，要到时再具体情况具体分析。从图形上看，可肯定选择做多的有QIHU和BIDU：

1，大框架是箱体震荡；
2，随着中国概念这个Sector被打压，两股都Well controlledly跌，也都跌到了年低价格附近；
是很好的做多目标。

2012年7月17日，当EDU作为市场热点大跌时，BIDU当日有反转长下影，而且位置在该股年低股价$103-110的下半段。该年低股价是在2011年9月底和10月初的4根阳线创下的，随后有了强烈的反转，这说明该价格是强支撑。然而BIDU是处于出货状态的股，无论图形有多好，都最好不要介入。（事后诸葛：BIDU在当时的股价稳定，说明了对中国概念的打压以EDU大跌为基调，已经在最困难的时候暂时停歇）。

QIHU上市时间还不长，还从没有过大行情，是出于吸筹状态的股。在中国概念如此惨烈的氛围下，该股目前没有跌到$14的最强支撑点，而是跌倒了第二主要支撑点$15。$15是2011年10月初创下的，随后也有了较强烈的反转，但当时没有成交量支持。虽可以在这个位置入仓试探，但市场氛围不好，进入后有可能要等，所以，先放入Watch List，如果能跌到$14-14.50，并且有日内反转的形态，则要果断介入。

On August 2nd, I bought QIHU at around 45th minute when it broke down $14 and quickly came back $14.50（这是典型的日内反转形态，打到了$14.00一下，Trigger了所有可能的止损盘，然后迅速脱离低价Range，通吃所有外挂的抛盘，至少短时间内是不会再见到$14.00了，这是最安全的买点和买入价！）, at which price I entered. A few days later, QIHU quickly went up to $17, I sold half at $17 because it touched 50SMA after a local extremely strong consecutive rally which implies that a consolidation or pullback is pending. Holding the other half position could give a chance to "let profit run" because the position is extremely secure since now it could tolerate the price's going down to as low as $12.50 in the worst case.

随后也没料到股价上涨这么快，但这只是赚多赚少的问题了。

On August 22nd, I sold off QIHU $24 because:
1, it's approaching the ceiling of the consolidation range;
2, it went up too much recently and typically on the day.

If we can make three such trades per year, it's more than good enough.