来看看rental market 的市场分析

http://www.yardi.com/blog/insight/investment-outlook-top-performing-multifamily-markets/445.html

 

The multifamily sector continues to be the favored asset class of most commercial real estate investors because the downside risk is relatively limited. Even if job growth continues to lag, slight job creation will result in many Americans who moved home to their parents returning to apartment living—and those who have “doubled up” (or “tripled up”) with roommates during the economic downturn will soon be trading up to a place of their own in a studio or one-bedroom apartment. This activity would be a boon for the apartment sector.

In fact, according to CBRE Econometric Advisors, the third quarter of 2011 marked the transition from the recovery phase of multifamily into the expansion phase. The sector returned to—and surpassed—the previous peak in terms of revenues. By that metric, it’s definitely ahead of other property types.

Research conducted by Reis Inc. shows that rent growth varies dramatically from market to market, but the average national rent growth is expected to surpass the rate of inflation this year. And CBRE Econometric Advisors predicts that the U.S. multi-housing vacancy rate will hold steady at 5.5 percent in 2012.  That’s down 60 bps year-over-year and 190 bps from its peak in 2009. They also predict a decline of an additional 30 bps in 2013.

So where are apartment investors focusing their efforts? While industry experts don’t agree on every market, they do all note that markets with high concentrations of high-tech employment will likely lead the growth in the multi-housing recovery. San Francisco, San Jose, Austin, Denver, and Seattle are among the top performers. Investors are also bullish on the New York and Washington, D.C. metro areas.

In addition to New York City, which typically sees tight vacancies and rental growth, the metro area as a whole—including Westchester and Fairfield counties, for example—has also been faring well. In D.C., despite the expectation that the government will cut spending (and jobs), investors expect the metro market to remain strong.

Marcus & Millichap’s Hessam Nadji includes Boston, Orange County, San Diego, Austin, Seattle and Minneapolis on his list of top performers. That’s because these markets have low vacancies, the potential for strong job growth and, in the short term—with the exception of Austin—little to no construction on the horizon.

Industry watchers also point to secondary markets that are considered promising for the year to come. These include Pitt*****urgh; Albuquerque, N.M.; and El Paso, Texas, although the growth in these areas is likely to slow down a bit because these are fairly affordable markets and more people will likely begin to pay attention to where rents are relative to the cost of buying homes.

Are there any markets to avoid? Some markets still have some catching up to do. Las Vegas, for example, remains 20 percent below its pre-downturn revenues, while Phoenix is still off by about 12 percent. Atlanta, meanwhile, is down 8 percent, and Los Angeles remains off by about 6 percent. However, these markets should see stronger job growth and limited new supply in 2012.

Houston, Dallas, Phoenix, Tampa and Orlando continue to suffer from relatively high vacancies, but they are expected to recover rapidly over the next 12 to 18 months. Nadji points to a number of overlooked markets such as Detroit, Milwaukee, Indianapolis, Chicago, and Portland, Ore. These are markets that don’t typically see much investor interest, but, according to Nadji, they are in many ways the diamonds in the rough.

Nadji also says that because of the resulting pressure on pricing, capital may begin to look at somewhat lower-quality assets—Class B and B- product in the best markets—as well as those assets further from the core. “As the risk appetite grows and the spread between the top-tier properties and the Class B/B- properties really steer investors toward the higher yield, you’re going to see capital start to move out a little bit,” said Nadji. Still, he doesn’t expect Class C assets or tertiary markets to benefit much in 2012. “It’s a migration of capital down the quality chain—but not too far,” he asserts.

Many investors are starting to look at secondary markets. Even markets that they had once shied away from—Charlotte, Raleigh, Atlanta, Dallas and Houston, because of an overabundance of new supply—are seeing strong job recovery and are being driven by the healthcare, biomedical, technology and energy sectors. Phoenix has also seen a strong return on investor appetite and Portland, Ore. is back in favor, with an overflow of jobs coming from Northern California.

Investors are expected to begin shifting their interest from urban to suburban assets, as they may be able to get a little more yield.

 Diana Mosher is the Editor-in-Chief at Multi-Housing News Magazine.