the key here is how you decide odds and what time frame

you assign when you calculate odds? I think the long term odds of stock market going up is so great that I have to be in 100%, there maybe correction like we saw starting April, but the trend is going up. Since my experience give me a very small sample size, I would like to know, if you guys think back, would you have done it differently?

Missed gain some times is a really serious loss, like Buffett missed on Walmart, Walmart is right in his center of competence, it is a big mistake he missed it, but it is different that he missed on Microsoft.

Every strategy comes with pros and cons, if you missed the gain that you should have won using your strategy, then it is a big mistake, since you do not have the gain to cover your future loss that is certainly to come using that same kind of strategy.