各项经济指标还是好转,市场也在看大选结果,我的预测是等大选不确定性消除后,市场会涨。
The betting (prediction) markets already show the results that are coming, barring any major, unforeseen event. Given the historically huge betting spreads, the results are locked in:
- Hillary Clinton will become president (~80% probability)
- Democrats will gain control of the Senate (~75% probability)
- Republicans will retain control of the House (~80% probability)
These probabilities have firmed especially following the release of the “Access Hollywood” tape and debates #2 and #3, as shown in Clinton’s graph.
The bottom line
This year’s election results are clear, so we can turn our focus to investing. Following this election period’s diversions, the U.S. stock market could again take center stage in investors’ thoughts. That focus shift combined with the return of a positive growth outlook could produce a major, positive shift in U.S. stock investing. Therefore, now is the time to concentrate on U.S. stocks, seeking to identify particularly those with attractive growth prospects.