风萧萧_Frank
以文会友
德国去工业化给美国制造商敲响了警钟
吉姆·维诺斯基 (Jim Vinoski) 撰稿人 2024 年 2 月 29 日
德国作为工业超级大国的日子即将结束，瓦卢瑞克 SACA 管道工厂被关闭 铁路线通向关闭的瓦卢瑞克工厂院子里的生产设施和旧设备 © 2024 彭博社
几代人以来，德国一直是制造业强国。该国处于十九世纪工业革命的先锋地位，在电气元件制造和化学品生产方面确立了主导地位。饱受二战摧残的该国在马歇尔计划的帮助下迅速重建了其制造基地。 尽管先是日本，然后是中国也成为主要出口国，但它仍然是制成品的最大出口国。该国长期以来以其庞大的制造基地所证明的工程实力和高品质而享有当之无愧的声誉。
现在，随着德国工业在世界舞台上的竞争日益困难，这种情况正在迅速发生变化。其强大的化学和重工业部门受到的打击尤其严重，目前这些部门正在迅速衰退。主要驱动因素之一是导致能源成本飙升的政策，而德国对于其他主要工业国家来说就像煤矿里的金丝雀。
德国巴斯夫是该国工业状况的领头羊。 该公司长期以来一直是德国制造实力的代表，自 1865 年成立以来不断发展壮大，在约 80 个国家拥有近 400 个生产基地，同时保留其总部和位于德国路德维希港的庞大多单元生产设施，该设施拥有 200 个独立的生产车间。 工厂和约 39,000 名员工。 但该网站在过去两年中出现了严重问题。 该公司已永久关闭了那里的两座合成氨工厂之一，并闲置了其他几座工厂，因为它们不再具有竞争力，此举导致路德维希港 2,500 个职位流失。 巴斯夫2023年销售额下降21.1%，调整后收益下降60.1%。上周，巴斯夫宣布在路迪维希港进一步节省 11 亿美元的成本，这将导致又一轮失业。
巴斯夫并不是唯一一家削减成本和裁员的公司。 德国无缝管生产商瓦卢瑞克 (Vallourec) 于 2023 年底关闭了位于杜塞尔多夫和米尔海姆的工厂。美国盛禧奥 (Trinseo) 关闭了伯伦 (Böhlen) 的苯乙烯工厂和施塔德 (Stade) 的聚碳酸酯生产线，导致美国公司 Olin 关闭了施塔德 (Stade) 的相关二氯甲烷和氯仿生产。 好吧，这一切都是由于高昂的生产成本。 德国湛新去年关闭了其位于汉堡的工业涂料工厂。 就在几天前，梅耶博格科技股份公司宣布将停止在弗莱堡生产太阳能组件。
许多因素导致德国电力和天然气成本飙升：例如，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰和随之而来的制裁，以及北溪管道的破坏。 但最大的推动因素之一是德国的净零能源政策“能源转型”，以及该国快速转向可变可再生能源、风能和太阳能发电。 它们必然需要备用发电能力，因为风不会一直吹，阳光也不会一直照耀。 这通常由化石燃料或核电厂提供，但德国在 2019 年通过立法，到 2038 年关闭所有燃煤电厂，去年该国关闭了其曾经强大的核电厂中的最后三座电厂（1990 年核电厂提供了 德国电力的四分之一）。 结果，该国被迫以高得多的价格进口电力和天然气。 德国最近推迟了关闭燃煤电厂的计划，现在也在计划新建天然气电厂，但损害已经造成。 德国现在是世界上电价最高的国家之一。
受此影响，整个德国经济陷入低迷。 今年的增长预测最近被大幅下调至仅 0.2%，而通货膨胀率预计约为 2%，这意味着实际的经济收缩。 其他指标也很糟糕，德国工程公司的订单和总体外国投资大幅下降。
在美国，德国的工业和经济困境已转化为一些短期收益，因为部分被取代的德国工业希望美国寻求更有利的能源成本。 例如，前面提到的德国梅耶博格关闭太阳能组件工厂，是为了让该公司能够专注于其在美国的新工厂。
然而，问题在于，美国在过早关闭煤炭、天然气和核电站转而采用 VRE 方面并不落后于德国多少。 警告
美国国家和地区电网运营商更频繁地发出有关可怕的潜在后果的担忧。 例如，管理中西部大部分地区、南部几个州以及加拿大曼尼托巴省部分地区的电网的中大陆独立系统运营商定期发布“对可靠性要求的响应”文件。 在上周发布的最新一期的执行摘要中，MISO 首席执行官约翰·贝尔 (John Bear) 写道：“MISO 和其他实体进行的研究表明，可靠地运行传统发电厂数量少得多、零发电厂数量多得多的电力系统是可能的。” 碳资源比我们今天拥有的还要多。 然而，正在进行的向脱碳最终状态的转变正在对电力可靠性构成重大的不利挑战。 一个主要风险是，许多现有的可根据需要打开、关闭和调整的“可调度”资源正在被风能和太阳能等具有截然不同特性和能力的依赖天气的资源所取代。 虽然风能和太阳能生产所需的清洁能源，但它们缺乏保持电网全年每小时可靠所需的某些关键可靠性属性。 尽管一些新兴技术有一天可能会改变这种计算方式，但它们尚未在网格规模上得到验证。 与此同时，建设新的可调度资源的努力面临着政府法规和政策以及新能源项目融资的现行投资标准的阻力。 在新技术变得可行之前，我们将继续需要可调度资源来实现可靠性目的。”
然而，美国大部分地区仍在继续关闭可调度发电机，并增加更多依赖天气的可变可再生能源，几乎不考虑能源可靠性或可负担性。 尽管电力需求不断增加，并且预计未来几年将大幅增加，但所有这一切仍在发生。 制造业回流美国的情况正在大幅增加，而使用云和人工智能的高耗电计算机应用程序的使用量也在猛增。 现在正是减少发电能力的错误时机，但这正是美国许多州和地区电网运营商正在做的事情，正如电网专家兼作家 Meredith Angwin 在她的新书《短路电网：电网》中详细解释的那样 我们电网隐藏的脆弱性。
制造商对电力可靠性和可承受性有着独特的需求，因为许多行业的商业模式依赖于通过几乎全年每天 24 小时运行来最大化产量。 然而，尽管政策制定者要求关闭更多化石燃料和核电站，并增加更多间歇性可再生能源，但美国制造商大多保持沉默。 也许来自德国的持续坏消息会改变这一点。
本文已更新，修正了巴斯夫路德维希港工厂关闭的氨装置数量和取消的位置。
吉姆·维诺斯基
我在制造业的“战壕”工作了数十年，专注于工程、运营和管理。
German Deindustrialization Is A Wake-Up Call For U.S. Manufacturers
Jim Vinoski Contributor
Rail lines lead to production facilities and old equipment in a yard at the closed Vallourec © 2024 BLOOMBERG For generations, Germany has been a manufacturing powerhouse. The country was in the vanguard of the industrial revolution in the nineteenth century, establishing dominant positions in electrical components manufacturing and chemical production. Devastated by WWII, with the help of the Marshall plan the country quickly rebuilt its manufacturing base afterwards. It remained a top exporter of manufactured goods even as first Japan then China rose to become major exporters as well. The country has long enjoyed a well-deserved reputation for engineering prowess and high quality that was demonstrated across its huge manufacturing base.
Now that picture is changing rapidly, as German industry increasingly struggles to compete on the world stage. Particularly hard hit are its mighty chemical and heavy industry sectors, which are now in rapid decline. One of the main drivers is policies that have made energy costs skyrocket, and there Germany serves as a canary in the coal mine for other leading industrial nations.
Germany’s BASF is a bellwether for the state of the country’s industry. The company has long been representative of Germany’s manufacturing prowess, having grown since its founding in 1865 to encompass nearly 400 production sites in about 80 countries, while maintaining its headquarters and a sprawling multi-unit production facility in Ludwigshafen, Germany, which houses 200 separate plants and about 39,000 employees. But that site is where serious problems have arisen in the past two years. The company has permanently closed one of two ammonia units there and has idled other several other units as well because they’re no longer competitive, moves that cost 2,500 positions in Ludwigshafen. BASF’s sales were down 21.1% in 2023, and adjusted earnings fell 60.1%. In the last week, BASF announced a further $1.1 billion in cost savings efforts at Ludiwigshafen, which will lead to another round of job losses.
BASF has not been alone in cutting costs and jobs. German seamless pipe producer Vallourec closed its plants in Düsseldorf and Mülheim in late 2023. U.S.-based Trinseo closed a styrene facility in Böhlen and a polycarbonate line in Stade, causing fellow American firm Olin to shut down related methylene chloride and chloroform production in Stade as well, all due to high production costs. Germany’s Allnex closed its industrial coatings plant in Hamburg last year. And just days ago, Meyer Burger Technology AG announced it was discontinuing production of solar modules in Freiburg.
Many factors contribute to the skyrocketing costs in Germany for electricity and natural gas: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resultant sanctions, as well as the destruction of Nord Stream pipelines, for example. But one of the biggest drivers has been Germany’s net-zero energy policy, Energiewende, and the country’s rapid move to variable renewables, wind and solar, for electric generation. They necessarily require backup generating capacity, since the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine all the time. That’s usually provided by fossil fuel or nuclear power plants, but Germany passed legislation in 2019 to shut down all its coal plants by 2038, and last year the country shuttered the last three plants in its once-formidable nuclear fleet (in 1990 nuclear provided a quarter of Germany’s electricity). As a result, the country has been forced to import electricity and natural gas at substantially higher prices. Germany has recently been delaying planned closures of coal plants and is now also planning new gas plants as well, but the damage has been done. Germany now has some of the highest prices for electricity in the world.
As a result, the entire German economy is in the doldrums. Growth forecasts for this year were recently slashed to just 0.2%, and as inflation is forecast to come in at about 2%, that implies actual economic contraction. Other indicators are also dire, with orders at German engineering firms and overall foreign investment dropping dramatically.
Here in the U.S., Germany’s industrial and economic woes have translated into some short-term gains, as part of the displaced German industries look to America seeking more favorable energy costs. For example, the solar module factory closure by Meyer Burger in Germany mentioned earlier was done to allow the company to focus on its new U.S. facilities.
The problem, however, is that the U.S. isn’t that far behind Germany in prematurely shutting down coal, gas and nuclear power plants in favor of VREs. Warnings about the dire potential consequences have been coming from America’s national and regional grid operators more frequently. For example, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, which manages electric grids in much of the Midwest, several southern state, and part of Manitoba, Canada, issues a periodic “Response to the Reliability Imperative” document. In the executive summary of its most recent installment issued just last week, MISO’s CEO John Bear wrote, “Studies conducted by MISO and other entities indicate it is possible to reliably operate an electric system that has far fewer conventional power plants and far more zero-carbon resources than we have today. However, the transition that is underway to get to a decarbonized end state is posing material, adverse challenges to electric reliability. A key risk is that many existing ‘dispatchable’ resources that can be turned on and off and adjusted as needed are being replaced with weather-dependent resources such as wind and solar that have materially different characteristics and capabilities. While wind and solar produce needed clean energy, they lack certain key reliability attributes that are needed to keep the grid reliable every hour of the year. Although several emerging technologies may someday change that calculus, they are not yet proven at grid scale. Meanwhile, efforts to build new dispatchable resources face headwinds from government regulations and policies, as well as prevailing investment criteria for financing new energy projects. Until new technologies become viable, we will continue to need dispatchable resources for reliability purposes.”
Yet most of America is forging ahead with shuttering its dispatchable generators and adding more weather-dependent VREs nonetheless, with almost no regard to energy reliability or affordability. All that is occurring even as demand for electricity is on the rise and is expected to increase dramatically in coming years. Reshoring of manufacturing to the U.S. is picking up substantially, while the use of power-hungry computer applications using the Cloud and AI is skyrocketing. Now is exactly the wrong time to be decreasing generating capacity for electricity, yet that’s exactly what many of America’s state and regional grid operators are doing, as explained in great detail by grid expert and author Meredith Angwin in her recent book Shorting the Grid: The Hidden Fragility of our Electric Grid.
Manufacturers have a unique need for power reliability and affordability, as many industries’ business models rely on maximizing production output by operating 24 hours a day nearly year-round. Yet there’s been mostly silence from U.S. manufacturers even while policymakers have mandated ever more closures of fossil fuel and nuclear power plants, and ever more additions of intermittent VREs. Perhaps the continuing bad news out of Germany will change that.
This article has been updated with correction on the number of ammonia units that were shut down and positions that were eliminated at the BASF facility in Ludwigshafen.
I've spent decades in the "trenches" of manufacturing, focused on engineering, operations, and management.
