We're a month into the 2012-13 NBA season, so it's a good time to analyze players going through slow starts. While a poor first month doesn't mean a whole lot in a sport like, say, baseball, individual stats tend to stabilize more quickly in basketball. Explanations for poor starts abound, many of the "convenient narrative" variety, but there may be a kernel of truth in each. So what's myth, and what's reality? Is it just a matter of going through an ill-timed slump -- a little bad luck in a small sample? Or is there something real behind the disappointing starts we're seeing from a handful of players thus far? Let's dig into the numbers and try to solve three slow starts. No one can deny the following players have been performing at a much lower level than we would have expected before the season, especially considering their solid campaigns in 2011-12, but do the casual conclusions and observations used to explain their struggles hold up to scrutiny? Here are three players who most seem to think were hurt by the offseason. But were they really? Conclusion No. 1: Jeremy Lin was a flash in the pan Lin was the well-documented toast of New York a season ago, but this season he's been putting up numbers more in line with his short, unremarkable stint with the Golden State Warriors in 2010-11. Are Lin's struggles just the natural result of growing pains with his new team in Houston, or are they indicative that his amazing 2011-12 run was a mere fluke, a great run of play in an offense built to allow that to happen? There's no question that Lin has had to alter his game to fit in with the Houston Rockets, especially in the wake of the team acquiring James Harden right before the beginning of the regular season. In terms of frequently having the ball in his hands, Lin had all of the statistical earmarks of an elite point guard last season, averaging an estimated 2.02 touches per minute (in an attacking position on the floor). Only Steve Nash, Rajon Rondo, Deron Williams, Chris Paul, Derrick Rose and Tony Parker had a higher rate of ballhandling. According to Synergy, he also ranked seventh in the allotment of his plays handling the ball in a pick-and-roll (42.5 percent), another hallmark of an elite point guard.Don't sell on Jeremy Lin yet
Are slow starts of Jeremy Lin, Ersan Ilyasova and Rodney Stuckey permanent?
Troy Taormina/US PresswireIs Jeremy Lin playing at his actual level or has adding James Harden actually hurt Lin's game?
Lin Better Without Harden?
| Situation | Pts | Poss. | ORtg | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lin + Harden | 896 | 876 | 102.3 | -- |
| Lin, no Harden | 101 | 96 | 104.3 | +2.0 |
| Harden, no Lin | 248 | 235 | 105.6 | +3.3 |
(Source: NBA.com/stats) Lin thrived in that facilitator role, proving an efficient pick-and-roll point guard and an elite isolation scorer. But this season, his touches per minute are down to 1.51, well below the level of Rondo, Williams and Paul, and he's handling the ball in a pick-and-roll on only 29 percent of his plays. Asking Lin to split ballhandling duty with Harden has been a big reason for his apparent decline; compared to lineups with Harden and Lin on the floor together, the Rockets' offensive efficiency is 2 points better per 100 possessions with Lin but no Harden, and 3.3 points better per 100 possessions with Harden but no Lin. Lin's incredible run might have been a "flash in the pan" in the sense that his game can only thrive under a somewhat specific set of circumstances, but that's true of many on-ball-centric players who struggle when asked to move into an off-ball role. Lin also showed last season that he's better than most ball-dominant players when allowed to play his preferred style. And there's also the matter of Lin currently ranking in the bottom 1 percent of the league in isolation efficiency, a rate that he is too talented to maintain for long. Verdict: Don't write Lin off as a one-hit wonder just yet.
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