http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/story/2012-03-03/robert-shiller-economy-stocks-housing/53338010/1
Q: A lot of housing market experts think home prices have bottomed. You've been more bearish.
A. It's not so much that I'm forecasting falling home prices as that I question whether anyone is able to forecast them right now. They won't fall forever, but they can fall for a long time. I don't know where home prices will be in 10 or 20 years.
解答：大师对房子近期反弹明显没有信心。
Q: If prices do fall further, does it follow that many homeowners will feel less wealthy, and they'll reduce spending and that will slow the economy?
A. Yes, we find that the "wealth effect" is stronger for housing than it is for the stock market. Many stocks are held in retirement portfolios, so people are not as likely to respond to a decline in value there as they would if it were something more immediate. In recent years, the home-equity loan has become very important as a way of sustaining consumption. Now that home prices have fallen, those loans are not so available. It seems pretty obvious that it's going to affect consumption.
解答：大师对靠home equity促生的经济增长深表怀疑。
Q: What trends would you need to see for a strengthening of prices and then a sustained rise in home prices?
A: One thing that has been encouraging: The National Association of Home Builders' housing market index has been shooting up. Builders are seeing signs of increasing demand. But it remains at a low level. So it's ambiguous evidence. But that might be taken as a sign that the market is improving.
解答：大师对这新房开工数据表示乐观（可是呢下文中提到这主要是因公寓建造增加造成的）。
Q: If you were a national housing czar with unilateral authority to do whatever you deemed necessary to help the markets and restore faith, what steps would you take?
A: This crisis was caused substantially by a failure to manage real estate risk properly. And so we should be thinking like financiers about that risk, and how it should be managed. The mortgage institution we have is traditional. There's no reason why we shouldn't rethink it completely. The Dodd-Frank Act called for a study of shared appreciation mortgages. Those are mortgages where the risk of loss and gain on the house is shared with the lender. So if home prices go down, it's not all on the shoulders of the homeowners.
解答：大师说这房事大崩溃是万恶的资本主义放贷造成的。 唯一的解决方法是shared appreciation mortgages. 这是说赚钱是大家的亏钱也是大家的。 看来大师认为只有社会主义的放贷才会解救米国房事。
Q: Do you see more rentals and apartments over the next decade? Do you think single-family homeownership will continue on maybe a slow, but steady decline?
A: After the Great Stock Market Crash of 1929, people soured on stocks as investments. And I could see that happening with housing. The assumptions people have been making that buying a house is the American dream and that that's what you have to do — that kind of assumption is not ringing so true anymore.
解答：大师非常残酷而又正式地给美国梦就是买房子的说法撒了一泡尿。大师直言住公寓也是可以的。
Q: Will the foreclosure settlement for about $25 billion between states and the five biggest mortgage lenders strengthen the housing market?
A: The problem is that the decline in the housing market dwarfs this agreement. The total decline of the housing market has been in the trillions, and negative equity in housing, by one estimate, was about $700 billion. So this is too small to be very effective. It all helps, I suppose, but it's not big.
解答：大师直言最近的$25 billion 救市是杯水车薪。房主们的房贷比房价要多七千亿的烂帐。
Q: Do you think there's a bubble forming in the U.S. stock market or in any other asset?
A: It doesn't seem to me that we're in a bubble situation as we were, say, in the 1990s. In the 1990s, there was just a general mood that we're entering a new millennium, with Internet technology and advanced technology and America soaring. It was a bubble all over the world, really. I don't know that we're in that state of confidence now.
解答：大师直言股市没有泡沫。 这就是说股市还有潜力。
Q: Do you think any asset bubbles are forming in China?
A: China had what looks like a bubble, but the government has taken steps against it. This is another reason not to expect bubbles so much. The stock market bubble of the 1990s and the housing bubble of the 2000s were still at a time when central bankers and government authorities believed much more in free-market efficiency than they do now. The authorities are now thinking that it's their responsibility to choke off bubbles.
解答：大师直言一党掌权可以有效地预防泡沫。这就是中国的独特的社会主义优越性了。
Q: If you had to put all your money for the next decade in either stocks or super-safe, inflation-protected securities from the U.S. Treasury (TIPS), what would you do?
A: Stocks. They're highly priced, and they're risky, but they've had a good historic record. And last time I looked, inflation index bonds have a negative real yield.
解答：大师直言现在就是应该买股票。
Q: Is there any recent good book on consumer psychology or a non-econ subject that you've read?
A: Well, I like Danny Kahneman's new book, Thinking, Fast and Slow. This reflects a psychological literature that the human mind is designed to build memories around narratives, especially human interest stories. Our mind stores memories as sequences of events with an ending. The story of the Great Depression is a story that's in our memories. Another story is the patriotic one of the greatness of our country that may resonate more at some times than at others. And when it does resonate, it encourages people to be spending and investing in an optimistic way.
解答：大师不悲观。
Q: A lot of housing market experts think home prices have bottomed. You've been more bearish.
A. It's not so much that I'm forecasting falling home prices as that I question whether anyone is able to forecast them right now. They won't fall forever, but they can fall for a long time. I don't know where home prices will be in 10 or 20 years.
解答：大师对房子近期反弹明显没有信心。
Q: If prices do fall further, does it follow that many homeowners will feel less wealthy, and they'll reduce spending and that will slow the economy?
A. Yes, we find that the "wealth effect" is stronger for housing than it is for the stock market. Many stocks are held in retirement portfolios, so people are not as likely to respond to a decline in value there as they would if it were something more immediate. In recent years, the home-equity loan has become very important as a way of sustaining consumption. Now that home prices have fallen, those loans are not so available. It seems pretty obvious that it's going to affect consumption.
解答：大师对靠home equity促生的经济增长深表怀疑。
Q: What trends would you need to see for a strengthening of prices and then a sustained rise in home prices?
A: One thing that has been encouraging: The National Association of Home Builders' housing market index has been shooting up. Builders are seeing signs of increasing demand. But it remains at a low level. So it's ambiguous evidence. But that might be taken as a sign that the market is improving.
解答：大师对这新房开工数据表示乐观（可是呢下文中提到这主要是因公寓建造增加造成的）。
Q: If you were a national housing czar with unilateral authority to do whatever you deemed necessary to help the markets and restore faith, what steps would you take?
A: This crisis was caused substantially by a failure to manage real estate risk properly. And so we should be thinking like financiers about that risk, and how it should be managed. The mortgage institution we have is traditional. There's no reason why we shouldn't rethink it completely. The Dodd-Frank Act called for a study of shared appreciation mortgages. Those are mortgages where the risk of loss and gain on the house is shared with the lender. So if home prices go down, it's not all on the shoulders of the homeowners.
解答：大师说这房事大崩溃是万恶的资本主义放贷造成的。 唯一的解决方法是shared appreciation mortgages. 这是说赚钱是大家的亏钱也是大家的。 看来大师认为只有社会主义的放贷才会解救米国房事。
Q: Do you see more rentals and apartments over the next decade? Do you think single-family homeownership will continue on maybe a slow, but steady decline?
A: After the Great Stock Market Crash of 1929, people soured on stocks as investments. And I could see that happening with housing. The assumptions people have been making that buying a house is the American dream and that that's what you have to do — that kind of assumption is not ringing so true anymore.
解答：大师非常残酷而又正式地给美国梦就是买房子的说法撒了一泡尿。大师直言住公寓也是可以的。
Q: Will the foreclosure settlement for about $25 billion between states and the five biggest mortgage lenders strengthen the housing market?
A: The problem is that the decline in the housing market dwarfs this agreement. The total decline of the housing market has been in the trillions, and negative equity in housing, by one estimate, was about $700 billion. So this is too small to be very effective. It all helps, I suppose, but it's not big.
解答：大师直言最近的$25 billion 救市是杯水车薪。房主们的房贷比房价要多七千亿的烂帐。
Q: Do you think there's a bubble forming in the U.S. stock market or in any other asset?
A: It doesn't seem to me that we're in a bubble situation as we were, say, in the 1990s. In the 1990s, there was just a general mood that we're entering a new millennium, with Internet technology and advanced technology and America soaring. It was a bubble all over the world, really. I don't know that we're in that state of confidence now.
解答：大师直言股市没有泡沫。 这就是说股市还有潜力。
Q: Do you think any asset bubbles are forming in China?
A: China had what looks like a bubble, but the government has taken steps against it. This is another reason not to expect bubbles so much. The stock market bubble of the 1990s and the housing bubble of the 2000s were still at a time when central bankers and government authorities believed much more in free-market efficiency than they do now. The authorities are now thinking that it's their responsibility to choke off bubbles.
解答：大师直言一党掌权可以有效地预防泡沫。这就是中国的独特的社会主义优越性了。
Q: If you had to put all your money for the next decade in either stocks or super-safe, inflation-protected securities from the U.S. Treasury (TIPS), what would you do?
A: Stocks. They're highly priced, and they're risky, but they've had a good historic record. And last time I looked, inflation index bonds have a negative real yield.
解答：大师直言现在就是应该买股票。
Q: Is there any recent good book on consumer psychology or a non-econ subject that you've read?
A: Well, I like Danny Kahneman's new book, Thinking, Fast and Slow. This reflects a psychological literature that the human mind is designed to build memories around narratives, especially human interest stories. Our mind stores memories as sequences of events with an ending. The story of the Great Depression is a story that's in our memories. Another story is the patriotic one of the greatness of our country that may resonate more at some times than at others. And when it does resonate, it encourages people to be spending and investing in an optimistic way.
解答：大师不悲观。
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