看了看的大千置顶贴，又看了看市场的实际方向，。。。。。。 ，又一次想起了诗和远方。

有人讲这世界上只有两种人，Ones who don't know, anothers who don't know they don't know. ”

 

 

Once, at a lecture, he was asked if Wall Street professionals were better at forecasting what would happen to market, and if not, then why, and here's what he said:

"Well, we’ve been following that same question for a generation or more, and I must say frankly that our studies indicate that you have your choice between tossing coins and taking the consensus of expert opinion and the result is just about the same in each case.

Everybody in Wall St. is so smart that their brilliance offsets each other. And that whatever they know is already reflected in the level of stock prices for the much, and consequently what happens in the future represents what they don’t know." - Benjamin Graham

感觉上大千置顶贴的正确率比掷硬币的结果还低。