如果明日大跌,请不要惊慌

来源: 2017-03-14 18:41:18 [] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读: 次 (31045 bytes)
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不知不觉,大市已调整震荡9日了,短期交易者机会应该比较多。时间看上去偏向做多者,但从历史数据看来,可能还差一跌。

下面的统计数据是sp500指数以1%为反转信号记录了变化幅度及时间。现摘取了自2005年以来下跌超过9日的下跌周期。

2005-03-07   1225 -   15 -5.0                                                   
2005-04-07   1191 -    9 -4.6                                                   
2005-08-11   1237 -   11 -2.6                                                   
2005-09-30   1228 -    9 -4.3                                                   
2005-12-14   1272 -   11 -1.9                                                   
2006-05-09   1325 -   10 -5.3                                                   
2006-07-03   1280 -    9 -3.6                                                   
2007-02-20   1459 -    9 -5.9                                                   
2008-02-26   1381 -    9 -8.1                                                   
2008-06-16   1360 -   14 -8.2                                                   
2009-01-06  934.0 -    9-14.6                                                   
2009-02-09  869.0 -    9-15.4                                                   
2010-06-18   1117 -   10 -8.8                                                   
2011-03-03   1330 -    9 -5.7                                                   
2011-07-22   1345 -   11-18.0                                                   
2011-11-11   1263 -    9 -8.6                                                   
2012-05-01   1405 -   13 -8.1                                                   
2013-05-21   1669 -   10 -3.7                                                   
2013-08-02   1709 -   13 -4.0                                                   
2013-09-18   1725 -   14 -4.1                                                   
2014-01-15   1848 -    9 -4.1                                                   
2014-07-03   1985 -    9 -1.4                                                   
2014-07-24   1987 -   10 -4.0                                                   
2014-09-18   2011 -    9 -3.3                                                   
2015-05-21   2130 -   11 -2.4                                                   
2015-08-10   2104 -   11-11.8                                                   
2015-12-29   2078 -   10 -9.4                                                   
2016-01-29   1940 -    9 -5.8                                                   
2016-04-20   2102 -   11 -2.5                                                   
2016-08-15   2190 -   18 -2.9                                                   
2016-09-28   2171 -   13 -2.1                                                   
2016-10-24   2151 -    9 -3.1                                                   
2016-12-13   2271 -   12 -1.5                                                   
2017-03-01   2395 -    9 -1.3   

历史数据显示,如果下跌超过9日,绝大部分会超过2%。

再看2%上涨超过50日的统计,当前周期87日12.7%,时间仅次于2006年的149日17%

2005-10-13   1176 -   61  9.7                                                   
2006-02-07   1254 -   63  5.6                                                   
2006-07-17   1234 -  149 17.0                                                   
2007-03-13   1377 -   57 11.2                                                   
2009-10-30   1036 -   53 10.6                                                   
2010-02-08   1056 -   52 14.3                                                   
2010-08-26   1047 -   50 15.9                                                   
2010-11-16   1178 -   65 13.3                                                   
2011-12-19   1205 -   49 13.3                                                   
2012-07-25   1337 -   36  9.2                                                   
2012-12-28   1402 -   34  8.8                                                   
2013-02-25   1487 -   32  6.9                                                   
2013-10-08   1655 -   68 11.2                                                   
2014-02-03   1741 -   41  8.3                                                   
2014-04-11   1815 -   71  9.1                                                   
2014-10-15   1862 -   36 10.9                                                   
2015-03-26   2056 -   39  3.6                                                   
2016-02-11   1829 -   47 14.1                                                   
2016-06-27   2000 -   34  9.1                                                   
2016-11-04   2085 -   87 12.7  

目前,显然是牛市,过需要调整,大市已跌1.3%。如果明日大跌,可以抄底

所有跟帖: 

thanks! -quietplayer- 给 quietplayer 发送悄悄话 quietplayer 的博客首页 quietplayer 的个人群组 (0 bytes) () 03/14/2017 postreply 19:52:55

明天就算升息,也是一种做法,各自表述。不一定大跌。至于debt ceiling -indexguy- 给 indexguy 发送悄悄话 indexguy 的个人群组 (126 bytes) () 03/14/2017 postreply 19:55:29

赞好贴 -kingy- 给 kingy 发送悄悄话 kingy 的博客首页 kingy 的个人群组 (0 bytes) () 03/14/2017 postreply 20:05:58

说好的大跌,哈哈 -河之北- 给 河之北 发送悄悄话 河之北 的个人群组 (35 bytes) () 03/15/2017 postreply 13:07:37

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