股市是0.5维的

来源: Labourse 2016-12-21 14:35:12 [] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读: 次 (1565 bytes)

Stock market is all about uncertainty. First, accurate stock valuation is difficult, as business is hard to evaluate per se. Second, even if accurate business valuation is available,stock price can deviate from it, and sometimes heavily so.

Given the aforementioned insurmountable uncertainty, it is hard to imagine that one can rely on a stock chart to predict its future. Yes, the chart is 2-dimentional, but the extra "information" provided on the 2D chart offers no benefit.

Therefore, I propose that stock price be viewed as a 1-dimentional variable. That is, its movement on time axis should be ignored. There is essentially only one thing that matters--the reading on the price axis.

To further ponder on the topic, even 1-D stock price is unreliable. Stock price can move up and down, and supposedly will hit a boundary when it gets extreme valuation, either extremely high or extremely low. But in fact, extremely high valuation is very common everywhere in stock market. There is no guaranteed uppper limit on a stock price at all!

What's left is a 0.5-dimentional stock price. In short, stock price can have a bottom, but doesn't need to have a peak. Investor can only rely on the 0.5D information.

Conclusions:
* Because time axis is removed, options should not be used.
* Because stock price has no upper limit, "shorting" should not be used.
* Stocks can only be bought at fairly low valuation.

 

所有跟帖: 

only be bought at fairly low valuation! 现在valuation高吗? -Yellen- 给 Yellen 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/21/2016 postreply 14:44:59

看个股,低估值的股票已经非常少。 -Labourse- 给 Labourse 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/21/2016 postreply 15:31:43

非常同意。本大妈当年和Bob Shiller聊过,这老先生还是靠谱的。 -Yellen- 给 Yellen 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/21/2016 postreply 18:49:25

. -笋干烧肉- 给 笋干烧肉 发送悄悄话 笋干烧肉 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/21/2016 postreply 15:14:01

没问题,好的策略的确可以影响结局,我是一切简单化。 -Labourse- 给 Labourse 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/21/2016 postreply 15:34:46

那你说说现在那个板块还是价值合理, 可以买进? -五谷不分- 给 五谷不分 发送悄悄话 五谷不分 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/21/2016 postreply 15:36:40

不敢说,,,我对板块是外行,喜欢直接研究个股 -Labourse- 给 Labourse 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/21/2016 postreply 16:44:13

right now , healthcare is cheap now, financial service is fair -buydip?- 给 buydip? 发送悄悄话 buydip? 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/21/2016 postreply 16:48:19

XLV 还不敢买。XLF走得太快了。 -五谷不分- 给 五谷不分 发送悄悄话 五谷不分 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/21/2016 postreply 18:02:46

. -笋干烧肉- 给 笋干烧肉 发送悄悄话 笋干烧肉 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/21/2016 postreply 15:50:11

. -笋干烧肉- 给 笋干烧肉 发送悄悄话 笋干烧肉 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/21/2016 postreply 16:02:42

哦,你还记得,我只是喜欢附庸风雅:-) -Labourse- 给 Labourse 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/21/2016 postreply 16:41:41

前些天看了你预告要写一个帖子论述股市是一维的。 -AynRand- 给 AynRand 发送悄悄话 (514 bytes) () 12/21/2016 postreply 15:53:46

就是个比喻,语不惊人死不休。 -Labourse- 给 Labourse 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/21/2016 postreply 17:09:03

大哥这一嗓子太突然了,受不了哇。----哈哈哈 -琼瑶- 给 琼瑶 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/22/2016 postreply 07:05:47

Price on time axis is not predictable. -chart101- 给 chart101 发送悄悄话 chart101 的博客首页 (236 bytes) () 12/21/2016 postreply 16:13:57

听不懂,值得思考;多管齐下 -Labourse- 给 Labourse 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/21/2016 postreply 17:13:52

是我说的不明。对股价这个变量来说,只有在和期权合约结合在一起用的时候, -chart101- 给 chart101 发送悄悄话 chart101 的博客首页 (298 bytes) () 12/21/2016 postreply 17:28:11

这种说法对结丹期元婴期的老怪是对的,对我们凡人和练气期的没有用处。 -random_walk- 给 random_walk 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/21/2016 postreply 17:23:41

我们寿命太短。 -random_walk- 给 random_walk 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/21/2016 postreply 17:26:17

管它几维,知道进退就可以玩了。 -mingrid- 给 mingrid 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/21/2016 postreply 18:09:20

without TIME .. stock price will not move ! -pc2buy- 给 pc2buy 发送悄悄话 pc2buy 的博客首页 (54 bytes) () 12/23/2016 postreply 11:21:30

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