The biggest flaw in efficient market hypothesis (EMH)

来源: Labourse 2016-05-17 10:13:15 [] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读: 次 (872 bytes)

When the target is simple, efficient market hypothesis (EMH) works well.For example, when a company is to be acquired by another one, market can accurate move the price to be slightly below acquiring price. Nobody is a fool in this case.

But when the target is complext, efficient market is NOT smart enough to provide an accurate price. After all, what is an accurate price? Do we expect that something as complex as a company can have a mathematically accurate "intrinsic value" at all? That is the biggest flaw in EMH. If there is no accurate solutio to something, no matter how smart the market is, it cannot solve the puzzle.

In fact, the fuzziness of the target can sometimes fool the market as to offer ridiculous price. If you happen to know better, you can outsmart the market and be rewarded.

 

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