现在是买进天然气的好时机

现在先纪录在案: 天然气周五四月期货收盘价格是$1.671. ]

理由： 1， 天然气价格现在处于近20年历史最低位。应该是接近坚实的底部。  2. 天然气库存量虽然很高， 但这个有滞后效应。周4的库存量报告比预期下降要多， 但市场反应是先升后跌， 周五反弹。  3. 很多天然气小公司已经破产， CHK 也宣布 减产， 出卖资产。 SLB， BHI等宣布大量裁员，rig count 数 已经创新低（392），不及高峰的1/4，基本 回到页岩气开发前的水平， 产量下降势在必行。 4. 美国天然气需求是持续增长的， 2015 发电用天然气比2013增长大约20%， 这个不要被媒体误导， 好像天然气成臭狗屎了。 5. 天然气现在价格远远低于成本， 据过去资料， 大多数成本价在$2.5-3 左右,  少数更低 或更高。 随着高成本的供应商退出， 价格回升是必然趋势。 6. 现在天然气价格是过度超卖状态， 是趋势所致的所谓“trader slaughter" ， 从基本面上必然回归正常合理范围。 美国天然气比欧洲低 好几倍， 从基本面看， 半年左右应该回到$2.5-3.  当然，继续在低价位波动一段时间也有可能，但最终必须回归正常。 如果开放天然气出口， 供求关系将会根本转变。  7. 股市， 大宗商品，油价的反弹也会带动天然气反弹（这条最弱）。 8. 空仓回补： 转贴：  The US Natural Gas Inventory Fell for the 12th Straight Week. Why? By Gordon Kristopher • Feb 23, 2016 2:25 am EST Natural gas inventory report  On February 18, 2016, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) published its weekly natural gas inventory report. The US weekly natural gas inventories fell by 158 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,706 Bcf for the week ended February 12. Likewise, natural gas inventory fell by 70 Bcf for the week ended February 5. Inventories fell for the 12th straight week due to the peak winter season. To learn more about the latest weather update, please read Part 1 of this series.     Enlarge Graph   Natural gas inventory consensus  Industry surveys estimated that US natural gas inventories would fall 154 Bcf for the week ended February 12. The better-than-expected decline did not support natural gas prices. Natural gas prices unexpectedly tumbled and declined 8% in the last two trading sessions due to a widening gap between supply and demand. Impact  The current natural gas stocks are 25% higher than last year’s level of 2,174 Bcf. They are also 26% more than the five-year seasonal natural gas stocks of 2,151 Bcf. The weekly natural gas inventory fell by ~50 Bcf in the Midwest, Eastern, and South Central storage regions of the US. This suggests these regions experienced colder-than-normal weather conditions during the week ended February 12. However, record inventories and record supplies continue to put pressure natural gas producers such as Cabot Oil & Gas (COG), Rice Energy (RICE), Rex Energy (REXX), QEP Resources (QEP), Anadarko Petroleum (APC), and Gulfport Energy (GPOR). These stocks’ natural gas production mix is more than 50% of their natural gas production portfolios. ETFs and ETNs such as the Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight Energy ETF (RYE), the VelocityShares 3X Long Natural Gas ETN (UGAZ), and the PowerShares DB Energy ETF (DBE) are affected by the volatility in the natural gas market. Read the next part of this series to learn about the latest update on the US natural gas rig count.   Energy and Power Performance     37,551 people are subscribed to Market Realist newsletters. Get our Upstream Oil and Gas newsletter PART 3 Cold Weather Subdued Natural Gas the Week Ended February 19 (Part 3 of 4) Why Is the US Natural Gas Rig Count Slowing Down? By Gordon Kristopher • Feb 23, 2016 2:25 am EST US natural gas rig count  Baker Hughes (BHI) released its weekly natural gas rig count report on February 19, 2016. The report projected that the US natural gas rig count fell by one to 101 for the week ended February 19. It fell by two to 102 for the week ended February 5, 2016. The US natural gas rig count fell for the 11th consecutive week.     Enlarge Graph   Impact  The active weekly US natural gas rig count fell by 61 rigs in 2016. However, it fell by three rigs in the last two weeks. The slowing rigs suggest that natural gas producers are optimistic of higher natural gas prices in the long term. Secondly, the natural gas rig count has declined by 45% over the last year. This means that US natural gas production could slow down, which could boost natural gas prices. In its monthly drilling report, the EIA suggested that natural gas production could decline by 451 million cubic feet per day in March 2016 compared to February 2016. However, the EIA’s STEO (Short-Term Energy Outlook) report suggests that natural gas production could outpace demand in the long term. The volatility in the natural gas prices affects oil drillers like Pacific Drilling (PACD), Atwood Oceanics (ATW), Schlumberger (SLB), Superior Energy Services (SPN), and Halliburton (HAL). They also affect ETFs and ETNs like the PowerShares DB Energy ETF (DBE), the Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3x ETF (ERX), the Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight Energy ETF (RYE), and the VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas ETN (UGAZ). Read on to the next part of this series to learn the latest update on natural gas price estimates.   Energy and Power Performance     PART 4 Cold Weather Subdued Natural Gas the Week Ended February 19 (Part 4 of 4) Natural Gas Prices Could Rally Due to Short Covering By Gordon Kristopher • Feb 23, 2016 2:26 am EST Short-term natural gas price trends The US natural gas prices are following the long-term bearish trend. Prices fell for the second day and are trading close to 16-year lows. The US natural gas inventory report and mild weather forecast are influencing natural gas prices.     Enlarge Graph   Critical support  Short covering and bargain hunting could support natural gas prices. The nearest resistance for natural gas prices is seen at $2.40 per MMBtu, and prices hit this level in January 2016. Pessimist sentiments of oversupply and mild winter weather forecasts could continue to put pressure on natural gas prices. Gas prices could see the important support level of $1.60 per MMBtu. Prices hit this mark in 1995. Natural gas price forecast  The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) forecasts that gas prices could average around $2.71 per MMBtu and $3.32 per MMBtu in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Natural gas prices are trading below their key moving averages. So, they might trade lower. Meanwhile, Quantum Gas & Power Services forecasted that US natural gas prices could trade between $1.50–$2.00 per MMBtu in the short term. Financial services firm Raymond James forecasted that US gas prices could average around $2 per MMBtu in 2016. The roller coaster ride in natural gas prices affect oil and gas producers such as Rice Energy (RICE), Exco Resources (XCO), EQT (EQT), Devon Energy (DVN), Hess (HES), Cabot Oil & Gas (COG), EOG Resources (EOG), Southwestern Energy (SWN), and QEP Resources (QEP). They also influence ETFs and ETNs such as the Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight Energy ETF (RYE), the Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3x ETF (ERX), the Fidelity MSCI Energy ETF (FENY), and the VelocityShares 3X Long Natural Gas ETN (UGAZ).

 

 

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所有跟帖： 

• 买哪个？ -adxp- ♂ (0 bytes) () 03/05/2016 postreply 19:17:44

• 同问。俺买了ung。不想要k1所以有机会就脱手。 -huntridge- ♂ (0 bytes) () 03/05/2016 postreply 19:33:57

• 冬夏转化，天然气用量周期是众人皆知的， 早已在因素之中，对长期价格不起影响。 -zd3y- ♂ (139 bytes) () 03/05/2016 postreply 19:21:44

• 大赞！多年后，转头看看，这些大宗商品还真是在底部啊 -摘下满天星- ♀ (0 bytes) () 03/06/2016 postreply 03:38:20

• Great FA! 从图形上看也像是反转了 -笑看涨跌- ♀ (0 bytes) () 03/08/2016 postreply 17:03:00

• 有几条实在不太同意 -bb_bing- ♂ (833 bytes) () 03/08/2016 postreply 17:43:26