回购对于股价的长期影响

Buyback reduces share number, so even if PE remains the same, the stock price will go up gradually. This is understandable, because earnings belong to shareholders and buyback is one way to delivery the earnings to shareholders' hands, beside dividend.

In the example below, TRV's share number in the past 10 years changes from 700+ to 390, roughly halved. During the same period, PE fluctuates around 10 and earnings fluctuate around 3+ Billion--that is to say, no apparent growth. But the stock price still manages to double ($50->$100), thanks to the effect of buyback. Adding dividend, this roughly equals a total of 10% per annum.

Conclusion:

In a non-growth stock, if PE=10, in the long run it creates 10% annual return to shareholders, from stock price appreciation plus dividend.

 

 

 

所有跟帖： 

• 回购的股大多数并不注销，而是成为内部股为高管提供期权 -alwaysbull- ♂ (372 bytes) () 01/24/2016 postreply 04:23:10

• option，rsu是重新发行treasury stock,会部分抵消回购，造成开支，但是不能无限夸大 -Labourse- ♂ (709 bytes) () 01/24/2016 postreply 09:35:03

• 蓝莓和苹果都曾经回购过股票，结果截然不同。 -名利场2000- ♂ (50 bytes) () 01/24/2016 postreply 11:09:30

• 同意；但是本文并没有鼓吹回购的意思，而是说明它的数学特性；健康的回购来源于稳定的赢利， -Labourse- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/24/2016 postreply 11:35:30