08/02
本周天然气有望上2.94元以上，本周四的EIA库存增加报告预期是50BCF， 5年平均是53BCF， 去年增加了83BCF。会上2.94的原因是：
1． 这一次的5年平均值53BCF比上周的5年平均值48BCF高很多，而上周四实际库存增加是52BCF，所以本周很容易比5年平均和预期低！俺估计会低于50BCF， 甚至低于48BCF， 因为上周全国的天气比上上周明显的更热。
2． 未来10天的天气依然很热，比正常热，特别是东西两岸和南部地区。只有西北边是比正常低温。
3． NOAA预测8-14天的新预报改为美国大部分地区偏热
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/，前几天还显示很多地方偏低温。
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/，前几天还显示很多地方偏低温。
这表示未来几周的EIA报告将会比5年平均低，所以非常利多。
MM已经强把天然气价格压下，做空的也增加了不少，所以周四报告出来后，有可能暴涨，逼空头平仓（Short
Covering）。也许周四之前就会到2.85以上。所以有UGAZ的不用担心，不要过早卖出，耐心等UGAZ至少在2.24以上再分批卖。
Covering）。也许周四之前就会到2.85以上。所以有UGAZ的不用担心，不要过早卖出，耐心等UGAZ至少在2.24以上再分批卖。
根据华尔街日报，上周五收盘后，空头的仓位是今年3/24以来最低。（http://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-futures-little-changed-ahead-of-hot-weekend-1438351984）所以，本周四的报告出来后，应该不会遭到像上周四一样的强压。
原油周一到周二之间，有机会下探45元，根据CNBC报导，原油多头的仓位是5年来最低，而且伊拉克7月份出口原油又继续增长，加上中国财新的PMI又比之前的预估值低，显示制造业在萎缩。这一些都是非常利空！唯一要注意的是本周三EIA报告，是否48周还继续减产超过10万桶。俺认为是不会！万一周还继续减产超过10万桶，原油有可能反弹至47元！若是减产只是3万桶以下，原油很可能跌破45元！当然还要看美元是跌是涨，会增加或减少幅度。
DWTI的操做方法是从127元任何4元以上的下跌（123元以下），都可以买进补仓。也可以在原油45元时，买进UWTI。可以预设UWTI1。35元或以下的价格买入。星期三EIA出来之前卖出。还有DWTI的，可以在133元以上卖出。（原油45.5元大约等于DWTI135元。 原油45元，DWTI大约等于140元）。
参考：
Iraq's southern oil exports rose in July to a record average of
3.064 million barrels per day (bpd) from 3.02 million in June, officials from
the state-run South Oil CO. said on Saturday.
3.064 million barrels per day (bpd) from 3.02 million in June, officials from
the state-run South Oil CO. said on Saturday.
Hedge funds and other speculators have slashed their bullish
exposure to U.S. crude to the lowest in nearly five years, trade data showed on
Friday, as local drillers continue to add rigs and pump at full throttle
despite a global oil glut.
exposure to U.S. crude to the lowest in nearly five years, trade data showed on
Friday, as local drillers continue to add rigs and pump at full throttle
despite a global oil glut.
The reading came in at 47.8, well below the 50-mark separating
growth from contraction and also lower than the preliminary reading of 48.2,
which also surprised markets on the downside. The data paint a darker picture
than the official China PMI, released on Saturday, which avoided falling into
contraction territory by coming in at 50 for July, down from June's 50.2 and
below a Reuters poll forecast for 50.2.
growth from contraction and also lower than the preliminary reading of 48.2,
which also surprised markets on the downside. The data paint a darker picture
than the official China PMI, released on Saturday, which avoided falling into
contraction territory by coming in at 50 for July, down from June's 50.2 and
below a Reuters poll forecast for 50.2.
