NOAA issues El Niño Watch: Could be good news if you didn't like this winter
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center(CPC) issued an El Niño watch on Thursday March 6, 2014. This means that CPC expects an El Niño to develop this summer or fall. Right now CPC says there is a 50 percent chance that an El Niño will develop.
A strong El Niño can have a big effect on Michigan's winter.
The top graphic shows the temperature anomaly forecast of the Tropical Pacific. This graphic is actually showing all of the computer models run around the globe that forecast the ocean temperatures. You will notice that there is a consensus for surface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean to warm above normal.
El Niño is a condition when the surface water warms above normal in the Pacific Ocean between Indonesia and South America.
The Pacific Ocean in the El Niño region has been near normal in temperature, called neutral state, since spring 2012. The last El Niño occurred from summer 2009 to spring 2010.
When an El Niño develops, some parts of the world have altered weather patterns.
View full sizeThe Climate Prediction Center's current forecast for next winter calls for an increased chance of warmer than normal temperatures in Michigan and the Great Lakes. How could El Niño affect Michigan?
El Niño patterns typically have no effect on Michigan's spring, summer, and fall. And in this case, the El Niño is not even expected to develop until this summer or fall.
But El Niño can have a dramatic effect on Michigan's winter. In fact, one of the strongest correlations is a strong El Niño and warmer than normal temperatures during winter in the Great Lakes and northern Plains.
Yes, you read that correctly. If El Niño becomes strong there is a good chance our temperatures in Michigan will be warmer than normal next winter. In fact, the second graphic is showing the Climate Prediction Center's temperature forecast for next December, January, and February. They may be already trying to reflect that warming effect on our winter.
El Niño is ranked as weak when the ocean temperature is .5 degree celsius above normal. It is ranked as moderate at one degree celsius above normal. Above one degree celcius above normal an El Niño is called strong.
So if you didn't like the cold this winter, there may be hope for you next winter.
But remember, the warming effect of El Niño is highly possible only during strong El Niños.
Every month we will have an updated forecast, and can see if the trend is for continued increases in El Niño region ocean temperatures.
So don't start packing the U-Haul to move out of Michigan yet. You might not have another winter like this year.
选择“Disable on www.wenxuecity.com”
选择“don't run on pages on this domain”
