- Some industries are interest-rate sensitive and do best early in an economic recovery when interest rates have bottomed, so their stocks anticipate and start outperforming late in a recession (e.g., financial and utilities).
- Others benefit from inflation and do best when the economy is peaking, so their stocks outperform starting in the middle of the economic recovery (e.g., energy, basic materials, and precious metals).
- Technology and big-ticket consumer discretionary industries like autos and housing do best in the middle of an economic recovery when prices are still moderate yet people are employed, so these stocks outperform at the start of the economic recovery.
- Early in a recession, consumer staples like food and healthcare do relatively well because everything else that is more economically sensitive does much worse, so these stocks outperform near the economic peak.
if you want to know the cycle stage just go to this web page:
http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/recession-recovery
