如果规律能重复

If history is any guide, the ratio is on its way back to the 2:1 or 1:1 levels of those historic lows.

Of course, how we get there is critically important. In a severe deflation — think early 2009, but far worse — gold might retreat to $1,000 an ounce and the Dow would sink to as low as 1,000. On the other hand, an episode of hyperinflation — think Weimar Germany and wheelbarrows of cash — could bring $100,000 gold and a 100,000 Dow.

Both of those are doomsday scenarios. We didn’t think either one likely. Instead, we posited two “plausible scenarios.”

• Plausible Scenario No. 1: Gold tops $6,000 — a reasonable figure, in light of gold’s 24-fold gain during the 1970s. At a 2:1 Dow-gold ratio, the Dow would be around 12,200
• Plausible Scenario No. 2: This is the “David Rosenberg scenario,” suggested in mid-2010 by the chief economist for Gluskin Sheff. He figured on $3,000 gold and the Dow bottoming around — gulp — 5,000. That’s a Dow-gold ratio of 1.7:1. For the record, he’s sticking with that outlook.