此番黄金大跌是 人为操纵，大机构放空所致。 大跌两天之后有企稳迹象，主要由于亚洲等实物金买盘支撑。黄金ETF等大幅减仓，据闻实物金库存大跌或枯竭。几百吨的空头何时补回，都是疑问。黄金至此何去何从，牛熊各有理。短期看，有人认为金价已经过高有泡沫，但从长期看， 无论如何也找不到大跌的理由。
1。黄金年产量已注定回落， 成本越来越高。除非有意外大金矿发现，此趋势不会改变。
2。黄金需求是持续上升的，原因是人口，消费和经济增长，
3。货币供应量大增，各国货币竞相贬值，比谁更烂，比较而言，瘦死骆驼比马大，美元现对好些。比如M2 人民币5年翻一番多，2012 增长近15%，2013 估计约13%，如此印钱， 通胀是必然的。美国的统计看来通胀不高，但除去了食品能源，实际可能远高于2%。货币泛滥必然导致所有商品价格上升，长期趋势是不可改变的，尽管短期操纵可能临时影响价格。因此，黄金长期价格上升趋势不会改变。
4。新型经济体的购买力：西人对黄金不感冒，认为黄金无甚用处， 想当然以为别人也认为如此。 中印黄金消费就占总量一半多。随着经济发展，仍会大量增长。国人为什么疯买黄金，理由很简单，缺乏投资途径，目前50万亿存款，利息赶不上通胀，买房投资（SB）？股市（都认为是提款机）？除了黄金，真没别的什么好买。
5。各国央行会大量卖黄金吗？可能性不大，就塞国哪12吨黄金，不够市场的牙缝，只是一个嚼头罢了，塞国引起欧盟各国抛售的可能性很小。中国黄金贮备几年未公布，但在增持黄金是无疑的。
结论是：现在买黄金，也许不再最低点，或下跌更多，但长期持有，不会亏。
US Mint’s Sales of Gold Coins Soar After Futures Prices Plunge
Thursday, 18 Apr 2013 06:15 PM
The U.S. Mint in April has sold 153,000 ounces of American Eagle gold coins, the highest in almost three years, after futures prices started the week by plunging the most since 1980.
Sales have more than doubled from March and surged sevenfold from a year earlier, data on the Mint’s website showed. The amount for all of May 2010 was 190,000 ounce.
This week, retail sales and jewelry demand soared in India, the world’s top gold buyer, and China, the second-biggest, after futures in New York slumped into a bear market, touching the lowest in more than two years. Coin sales also surged in Australia.
“Sales for coins have jumped this week,” Raymond Nessim, the chief executive officer of New York-based MTB Inc., a dealer authorized to purchase coins directly from the U.S. Mint, said in a telephone interview. “The price drop has definitely given a big push to sales.”
The China Gold Association said that retail sales soared on April 15 and April 16, and the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation said that demand climbed to the highest this year. Sales surged from Australia’s Perth Mint, which refines almost all of the nation’s bullion, Treasurer Nigel Moffatt said. He didn’t provide precise figures.
On the Comex in New York, gold futures for June delivery rose 0.7 percent to settle at $1,392.50 an ounce Thursday. On April 16, the metal touched $1,321.50, the lowest since January 2011. The price has tumbled 17 percent this year.
“The volume of business that we’re putting through is way in excess of double what we did last week,” Moffatt said in a telephone interview. “There have been people running through the gate.”
The Daily Market Report
18-Apr (USAGOLD) — Gold traded briefly back above the $1400 level in early New York trading, before retreating back into the range. The market continues to be underpinned by considerable physical interest, both in Asia and here in the U.S. The U.S. Mint is reporting sales of 147,000 ounces in April thus far, with two more weeks left in the month. Some sources are saying the Mint sold 63,500 ounces on Wednesday alone! That’s more than they sold in the entire month of March. The U.S. Mint should easily exceed the high water market for the year set in January at 150,000. Regardless of the big paper driven sell-off that began last Friday, the underlying fundamentals have not really changed. The G-7 economies are moribund at best and recessionary at worst. The central banks of these nations continue to respond with super-easy monetary policy and extraordinary accommodations at best. A Time magazine article on gold’s fall said, “let’s not mistake yesterday’s decline for the end of the gold bull run. [T]he issues confronting traditional currency have not been resolved.” Truer words were never spoken; as clearly the debasement of the world’s major currencies is an ongoing phenomenon. Investor and author John Mauldin said earlier this week in his Things That Make You Go Hmmm…newsletter: “[T]he era of fiat currencies is approaching yet another ‘end point’ due to the way such funny money is being abused by governments and central banks.” Mauldin goes on to add, “The only real viable alternative is gold.” While Cyprus is reportedly considering selling at least a portion of it’s gold reserves to help finance its bailout, central banks in general remain net buyers of physical gold as part of a broad reserve asset diversification strategy that is unlikely to end any time soon. There is some concern out there that other sovereigns may be pressured to sell gold reserves under duress. Recall however that back in the summer of 2011, when the Greek crisis was in full swing, the Bank of Greece managed to scrape together enough money from somewhere to actually add to its gold reserves. I don’t believe meaningful central bank gold sales are a legitimate risk. If Cyprus does sell 10 tonnes of gold, it will never see the open market. Rather it will most likely be snapped up by one of the many gold hungry sovereigns. Over the last couple days the yellow metal seems to be trying to form a base. While further tests of the downside can not be preclude, given the size of the paper market relative to the physical market. Conservatively, there are 100 paper ounces of gold out there for every ounce of the real thing. Yet physical buyers have largely been viewing the recent drop has a huge gift courtesy of that paper market. Our phones have been ringing off the hook and I have yet to process a single purchase order, where a client is selling. Understandably, some clients want to have a conversation about recent price action and timing. However, since the drop began last Friday, they have all been buyers and I view that as perhaps the strongest indicator of all.
