给你泼盆冷水：历史数据说，后面还要大涨，看好啊

Prior Instances: What I specifically looked for were previous occasions where the Dow touched a two-month low, and then, within two weeks, made a two-month high. The most recent signal actually happened just about a week ago, on Oct. 21. The chart below shows all occurrences since 1995, as indicated by the red dots. From a longer-term perspective, it looks to be a pretty bullish development after those past few instances. At least, there weren't any sustained downtrends after those signals.

This is the 18th such signal since 1950. Below are some tables showing Dow returns after one of these signals, as well as typical Dow returns for comparison. It's encouraging to see that these occurrences generate relatively bullish returns. Across all time frames, the average returns are better after a signal, with a higher positive percentage. One concern I had was that the big moves to the bottom and top of the range might be indicating some upcoming volatility. However, when you look at the standard deviation of returns, they fall right in line with typical standard deviations.

所有跟帖： 

• 谢谢。。我会提醒自己。。 -chicagoshwind- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/23/2011 postreply 15:59:47

• 谢谢，收藏了。。回复：给你泼盆冷水：历史数据说，后面还要大涨，看好啊 -tianfangye- ♂ (5597 bytes) () 10/23/2011 postreply 16:05:10