We’ve Been Here Before (zt)

Take a look:

 

The market just came out of a 16-year bear market in November 2016. That makes this current multiyear bull market just over two years old. A key reason for this is the "megaphone pattern" the market created during the last bear market. November 2016 is when we finally broke out of that.

The previous three bull markets, measured the same way, have gotten larger and longer than the previous one. The first was eight years and a 400% increase. Then a 15-year bull market and a 450% increase. The one in the '90s was an 18-year bull market and a whopping 1,000% increase. If today's bull market is just half of the previous one, we have another 400% increase waiting, and seven more years before the next persistent bear market takes hold.

I know it seems impossible at the moment. All the factors seem to align for an extended bear market. But with history as our guide, we've been here before. And the market has thrived for longer than many thought possible. That will begin in 2019 with a significant rebound for the stock market.

所有跟帖： 

• 哇， 似乎很有道理 -zipzoomfly18- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/13/2019 postreply 15:52:10

• 马后炮 -鬓微霜又何妨- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/13/2019 postreply 16:00:49

• 这种超长线都有强烈基础面支持的，可以说完全是基础面，1919-1929是第一次联储宽松和全世界一战后恢复，1946-1965是二 -PMEnergy100- ♂ (320 bytes) () 01/13/2019 postreply 16:15:33