Long Term Definitely NG price will go down, however, Jan Weather

Long Term Definitely NG price will go much down if Suppliers don't cut production, Completely agree.
however, the coming Jan Weather forecast model is much colder than normal, like longhorn said we are trading for Jan now.

Secondly. Jan contract expiration is Dec, 29th, MMs have shorted NG from $4.5 to $3.6, total 200K net short contracts, this need to cover near the expiration date, this may push the NG price much higher (like end of Oct, NG price sharp roar, it is not only related to weather). Commercial on longs side, since NG price is cheap for Jan, contract, they can execute the contract and don't need to sell.

I think NG will go up short term, of course, NG price always swing, up and down, like next coming Thursday, NG may sharply down after report # come out, but should bounce back shortly. On the opposite, I do believe it is good chance to load long for coming 1-2 weeks or longer if NG go down too much after Next Thursday report.

We probably can see the NG short term direction early next week (Monday and Tuesday).