天然气: Supply/Demand

Production supply will continue increase in October:

Marcellus production will advance 1.4 percent from September to 16.1 billion cubic feet a day in October, the EIA said Sept. 8. Utica may rise 5.6 percent to 1.5 billion.

See following Article from Bloomberge:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-19/surging-gas-supply-masks-risk-of-winter-price-shock.html

Weather:

Fall temperature (October - December), east and west will be above Average, where there are the most population, Mid will be below than Average, HDD usage predicate will be normal or little low than average for the 3 months.

http://www.weather.com/video/fall-temperature-forecast-53807

So don't expect NG price will have a big jump before Jan, 2005. see current NG price

Oct Contract: $3.84
Nov Contract: $3.9
Dec Contract: $3.99
Jan 2015 Contract: $4.06

For ETF trading, like Ugaz/Dgaz, UNG. you can see, each rollover, Contango rollover, see the above price diff (Oct, Nov, Dec Jan), Ugaz, Ung will have big decay...really not good for hold for longs at current time, take profit in time, Ugaz/Dgaz better not hold over one week.

For hold longs, especially 3*ETF, it's better to wait at least till November...otherwise, the decay will kill you.

Good Luck!

 

 

所有跟帖： 

• Well said! -longhorn- ♂ (1 bytes) () 09/20/2014 postreply 09:00:56