No, I didn't consider the tax, as it becomes too complicated whe

No, I didn't consider the tax. For all fund prospectus, no tax is considered either, as it becomes too complicated when considering tax.
I need to pay tax anyway if I use different investment vechiles, and I may need to pay tax every year, instead of deferring it to 15 years later.
So to compare apple to apple, I have not included tax calculation.

But even considering after tax return, I believe my return over 15 years should be higher than 200%.

For 150K house, depreciation will be 80K after 15 years. When I sell it for 240K in 15 years, I will find a flat fee agent who can list my house.
Right now the flat fee is $500. the buyer agent gets 3%, so the commission will be less than 9K. Adding the remodeling cost, and closing cost, another 20K.
so I still end up with 210K. I have 60K in profit, which I pay long term capital gain. 80K in recaptured depreciation, which I pay regular tax. So I need to
pay tax 38K, and I end up with 210K -38K= 172K, so about 330% after tax gain over my initial payment of 40K. This represents an after-tax annual rate of 10%,
still better than any municipal bond.  I have not considered the cash flow yet.

It's a ballpark number, may not be accurate, but gives me a rough idea how much return I will receive after tax.