我觉得长期来看通缩的可能性很小。一是，inflation is the least painful way to solve serious national debts in US and European countries. Secondly, Americans are different from Japanese, they are raised as spenders. It will take a generation or two to change the consumer habit.从奢入简难。
Thirdly deflation is not necessarily a bad thing for savers. It means your savings will have more purchasing power down the road. To me the two most important aspects of my personal finance is saving for kids' college and post-college education, and our retirement. With deflation, retirement cost and education cost will likely go down as well. Deflation is not going to hurt savers, it will hurt spenders. It's the inflation which eats away my savings.
Fourthly, I only spent a very small portion of my portfolio on real estate, less than 10%. Most of my portfolio is in bonds, dividend-paying stocks, index fund, natural resources and cash position. I am trying to use the loan to leverage my holding in real estate by 4, so instead of worrying inflation eating away my portfolio, I transfer some risk to the banks.
