In most cases, you must pay estimated tax for 2011 if both of the following apply.
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You expect to owe at least $1,000 in tax for 2011, after subtracting your withholding and refundable credits.
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You expect your withholding and refundable credits to be less than the smaller of:
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90% of the tax to be shown on your 2011 tax return, or
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100% of the tax shown on your 2010 tax return. Your 2010 tax return must cover all 12 months.
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Note. The percentages in (2a) or (2b) above may be different if you are a farmer, fisherman, or higher income taxpayer. See Special Rules beginning on page 18.
http://www.irs.gov/publications/p505/ch02.html#en_US_2011_publink10007328