理由1： 下跌得还不够充分。很多地方仅仅跌到03年的水平。而很多高房价的地区，比如纽约，还没有开始下跌。一般来说，泡沫破灭后，不跌到泡沫发生前的水平是不会停的。就是说，大部分地区得跌到99年的水平。很多时候还会矫枉过正，超跌。
no history could compare today. One thing I know, if the housing price back to 1999's price. That means deflation and economic suicide. US leaders are smarter enough to not let that happen, i.e. high interest rate.
理由2： 大多数地区租房仍然比买房划算。一定会跌到买房绝对比租房划算的时候才到底。
Where comes your data? You probably live in NY city.
理由3：坚决不可以在利率低的时候买房。因为虽然现在利率低，迟早有一天利率会上涨。利率只要一上涨，房价就会相应下跌。这是经济规律。现在房市看起来稳定了，其实这是因为低利率把房价托住了。利率不可能总这么低吧？历史上利率这么低的时候很少见。
Why not. that the reason of QEn. Fed could buy as much as treasuries as they want to keep the interest low. With some much debt and deficit, there is no way US would pay you high interest.
理由4：FORECLOSURE太多。要买房，一定要等FORECLOSURE的库存都清空。否则，还会跌！
Bank do not have to sell those houses!
理由5： 失业率高。从来没有房市会在高失业率的情况下复苏。从来没有！
how about 2012? unemployment rates are lagging indicators. Without a second recession, unemployment rate will drop. Right now, the chance of second recession in US is probabaly less than 20%.
理由6： 美国人负债太多。历史上，从来没有这么低的存储率和这么高的负债率。当中产阶级陷在债务中不能自拔的时候，不能期望他们会买新房子，换大房子。
American 存储率 is increasing and 负债率 is dropping at the moment.
理由7： 所有要买房的人基本上都已经在过去这几年低利率，0首付的情况下买了。都被套住了。不能指望被套住的人买新房子。
How many new houses are built in the last two years? The inventory of the new house is dropping.
理由8： 仍然有很多过度建设的存货。
The inventory of the new house is dropping.
理由9：这个理由很绝望。呵呵。有很多BABY BOOMER的老人退休。他们会从大房子换成小房子，或者去老人院，换成RV。 有如此多的BABY BOOMER要卖房，美国的房市得等这些人死光光才会有起色。
there are also thousands of thousands of immigrants coming into US every year. If and will US change its immigration policy, the US population could easily increase 5% every year. US is best place to live on earth right now. I have been to Europe. the price of everything are at least 50% more expensive. Europeans also have to pay 50% income taxes.
说了这些悲观的话可能很多人不爱听。就当忠言逆耳吧。我自己的房子也在跌，所以我不是幸灾乐祸者。
I am not saying housing price will increase in 2011 or even 2012. However, I am fairly centain that housing price will not drop by much as you predicted.
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