High oil price is its own enemy:
$147 oil shut down global economy right away. Nobody can afford that after piling up huge debts. As a result, it causes demand destruction. And oil tumbles to around $35 at one point.
These days, whenever oil passes $85, we will see a shock in stock market. Which causes a sell off to bring it down to $70-75.
Any 3 digit oil will cause another slow down in recovery or recession, which will bring another round of demand destruction. As a result, lower oil price.
Peak oil is real. But how to play it is a totally different matter.
Personally, I think that we won't see $147 quite some time (no surprise if we don't see that in 5-10 yrs: not until deflation run its course which could take a long time). We saw this type of con-tango in Wheat, soybean futures before. It always indicates a peak in price in mid-long term.
$147 oil shut down global economy right away. Nobody can afford that after piling up huge debts. As a result, it causes demand destruction. And oil tumbles to around $35 at one point.
These days, whenever oil passes $85, we will see a shock in stock market. Which causes a sell off to bring it down to $70-75.
Any 3 digit oil will cause another slow down in recovery or recession, which will bring another round of demand destruction. As a result, lower oil price.
Peak oil is real. But how to play it is a totally different matter.
Personally, I think that we won't see $147 quite some time (no surprise if we don't see that in 5-10 yrs: not until deflation run its course which could take a long time). We saw this type of con-tango in Wheat, soybean futures before. It always indicates a peak in price in mid-long term.
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