"The U.S. Navy's Targeting Problem."

Second, I assume that absent enemy countermeasures, each side's missiles would perform well. I assume that the ASBM would have a high probability of hit against a correctly identified and located carrier and that in turn the SM-3 would have a high probability of hit against a correctly identified and located ASBM reentry vehicle. Compared to actual historical experience involving large numbers of guided missiles, these estimates appear optimistic. (33)

The U.S. Navy's Targeting Problem. The Navy would almost certainly fire two ABMs against each of the incoming ASBMs. (34) Doing so would of course increase the probability of a successful intercept. However, with only twenty-four or twenty-five ABMs aboard, each Aegis ship escorting a carrier would at that rate be able to engage at most thirteen ASBMs. Even if each ABM individually performed as well as the Navy could reasonably expect, the fourteenth would get past active defenses.