As a matter of fact, no one knows the spot price of oil.

It can be significantly lower than the future market. If RMB appreciates, inflation pressure originated from oil and other raw materials is going to be released because all these things are settled in the dollar.

Furthermore, if RMB appreciates, exporters will get paid less in RMB, meaning less money supply to domestic economy.

I am not a fortune teller. I am only saying the whole picture and dynamics among various factors are complex. We need work harder if we really want to come to a conclusion.