需备存款多少，方可无忧退休?

假设: 每年需要10万(按今天的价值)
参数: 通膨1%至10%；投资回报8%至15%
变量: 1 需备存款多少15年后可无忧退休?
          2 需备存款多少现在就可无忧退休?

答1: 需备存款40万至3米15年后可无忧退休 (详见下表)。
答2: 需备存款80万至6米现在就可无忧退休。

注释1: 通膨设为4%较合理，但10%完全可能。无人能合理预测未来45年通膨率。考
虑美国政府挥霍无度，通膨率趋高无疑。

注释2: 通膨您无法控制，投资回报您必须抓。如能做到15%回报， 1米即可无忧退
休；做到12%回报， 2米即可；做到8%回报，则需 3米。如不敌通膨， 则不必考虑退
休了: 做到那天算那天， 鞠躬尽瘁。

 

Inflation Rate	Annual Withdraw for 10w Value	Drainage in 25 Years	Savings Toady w/ 8% Return	Savings Toady w/ 12% Return	Savings Toady w/ 15% Return
1%	116,097	2,902,422	914,965	530,262	356,692
2%	134,587	3,364,671	1,060,685	614,713	413,499
3%	155,797	3,894,919	1,227,841	711,587	478,664
4%	180,094	4,502,359	1,419,331	822,564	553,315
5%	207,893	5,197,320	1,638,412	949,531	638,722
6%	239,656	5,991,395	1,888,738	1,094,606	736,309
7%	275,903	6,897,579	2,174,405	1,260,162	847,674
8%	317,217	7,930,423	2,500,000	1,448,859	974,605
9%	364,248	9,106,206	2,870,656	1,663,670	1,119,103
10%	417,725	10,443,120	3,292,107	1,907,919	1,283,402

 

所有跟帖： 

• 看不懂。 -enjoyer- ♀ (149 bytes) () 04/19/2008 postreply 16:59:07

• 回复：看不懂。 -牛经沧海- ♂ (210 bytes) () 04/19/2008 postreply 17:23:22

• You are such a dream breaker! Crying. -enjoyer- ♀ (0 bytes) () 04/19/2008 postreply 17:24:57

• The key is to improve your return -牛经沧海- ♂ (77 bytes) () 04/19/2008 postreply 17:29:24

• easy said than done. My YTD is -5.8%. -enjoyer- ♀ (0 bytes) () 04/19/2008 postreply 17:36:03

• Wait a minute. I don't think I will need today's 100K a year -enjoyer- ♀ (110 bytes) () 04/19/2008 postreply 17:28:24

• 回复：Wait a minute. I don't think I will need today's 100K a year -牛经沧海- ♂ (73 bytes) () 04/19/2008 postreply 17:30:57

• You may need long term care, nursing home, etc. -laota- ♀ (131 bytes) () 04/19/2008 postreply 19:05:12

• drainage什么意思？ -enjoyer- ♀ (0 bytes) () 04/19/2008 postreply 17:00:26

• 回复：drainage什么意思？ -牛经沧海- ♂ (109 bytes) () 04/19/2008 postreply 17:14:31

• Gosh, are you saying that i would need 4.5M -enjoyer- ♀ (135 bytes) () 04/19/2008 postreply 17:24:00

• Why 10W -牛经沧海- ♂ (130 bytes) () 04/19/2008 postreply 17:37:19

• 如果不用“如果”，而按现在的实际情况算 -丁丁在美洲- ♂ (114 bytes) () 04/19/2008 postreply 20:07:29

• 不能预测未来,只能走着(工作着)瞧了.对我们普通人来说, -偶行偶素- ♀ (38 bytes) () 04/19/2008 postreply 20:16:42