putwriter, u r either ignorant about financial or

来源: longterminvestor 2008-09-03 14:52:04 [] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读: 次 (1382 bytes)
misleading.

when market is in panic on financial, both debt and equity are dropping like a stone, if u have to mark to market the value of equity (financial assets), why can't u do the same thing on debt?

Besides, after market bottom, financial asset price has beening increasing, how is debt price dropping?

Do u know how Ackman shorted mbi and abk, he was buying CDS on MBI and ABK, here is an explanation on what is CDS:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_default_swap

This is what ABK has to say on the monthly selected data:

"The cost of five-year credit default protection against Ambac Assurance Corporation (AAC) default declined from 2,100 basis points at June 30, 2008 to 1,147 basis points at July 31, 2008."

What it means is that the price of insurance against ABK's default on its own debt dropped by half. So, market is saying ABK is much less likely to default on its own debt than the market thought at June 30. If ABK is less likely to default on its debt, will the price of its debt go up or down?

Why some financial companies are up so much so fast? because some of them were down as fast and as much when market was panicking. It is just a return to their fair valuation. Look at their valuation here:

http://blog.dwnews.com/?p=40973

I still have all my core holding on abk, mbi and ago.

所有跟帖: 

ok, i am ignorant. keep your financials. have fun -putwriter- 给 putwriter 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/03/2008 postreply 14:54:46

ding! -xiaopaoche- 给 xiaopaoche 发送悄悄话 xiaopaoche 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 09/03/2008 postreply 15:07:35

here is price of abk's two debts -longtermInvestor- 给 longtermInvestor 发送悄悄话 (46 bytes) () 09/03/2008 postreply 15:09:55

if you are in distress, do you have money -putwriter- 给 putwriter 发送悄悄话 (34 bytes) () 09/03/2008 postreply 15:12:53

老大:别和他计较。 -yqf- 给 yqf 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/03/2008 postreply 15:29:32

u r right about that, but abk and mbi are not in distress -longtermInvestor- 给 longtermInvestor 发送悄悄话 (455 bytes) () 09/03/2008 postreply 15:33:40

forgot to mention, even rating agencies acknowledged -longtermInvestor- 给 longtermInvestor 发送悄悄话 (136 bytes) () 09/03/2008 postreply 15:35:43

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