一年前的旧文: BIS铁笔直断次贷危机恐造成30年代级别大衰退

来源: 2008-04-06 07:31:06 [] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读: 0 次 (8447 bytes)
看到一篇一年前的旧文,觉得这个BIS铁笔直断,真的很有先见之明。

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/06/25/cncredit125.xml

BIS warns of Great Depression dangers from credit spree

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 25/06/2007

The Bank for International Settlements, the world's most prestigious financial body, has warned that years of loose monetary policy has fuelled a dangerous credit bubble, leaving the global economy more vulnerable to another 1930s-style slump than generally understood.

The BIS said China may have repeated the disastrous errors made by Japan in the 1980s

"Virtually nobody foresaw the Great Depression of the 1930s, or the crises which affected Japan and southeast Asia in the early and late 1990s. In fact, each downturn was preceded by a period of non-inflationary growth exuberant enough to lead many commentators to suggest that a 'new era' had arrived", said the bank.

The BIS, the ultimate bank of central bankers, pointed to a confluence a worrying signs, citing mass issuance of new-fangled credit instruments, soaring levels of household debt, extreme appetite for risk shown by investors, and entrenched imbalances in the world currency system.

"Behind each set of concerns lurks the common factor of highly accommodating financial conditions. Tail events affecting the global economy might at some point have much higher costs than is commonly supposed," it said.

The BIS said China may have repeated the disastrous errors made by Japan in the 1980s when Tokyo let rip with excess liquidity.

"The Chinese economy seems to be demonstrating very similar, disquieting symptoms," it said, citing ballooning credit, an asset boom, and "massive investments" in heavy industry.

Some 40pc of China's state-owned enterprises are loss-making, exposing the banking system to likely stress in a downturn.

It said China's growth was "unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable", borrowing a line from Chinese premier Wen Jiabao

In a thinly-veiled rebuke to the US Federal Reserve, the BIS said central banks were starting to doubt the wisdom of letting asset bubbles build up on the assumption that they could safely be "cleaned up" afterwards - which was more or less the strategy pursued by former Fed chief Alan Greenspan after the dotcom bust.

It said this approach had failed in the US in 1930 and in Japan in 1991 because excess debt and investment built up in the boom years had suffocating effects.

While cutting interest rates in such a crisis may help, it has the effect of transferring wealth from creditors to debtors and "sowing the seeds for more serious problems further ahead."

The bank said it was far from clear whether the US would be able to shrug off the consequences of its latest imbalances, citing a current account deficit running at 6.5pc of GDP, a rise in US external liabilities by over $4 trillion from 2001 to 2005, and an unpredented drop in the savings rate. "The dollar clearly remains vulnerable to a sudden loss of private sector confidence," it said.

The BIS said last year's record issuance of $470bn in collateralized debt obligations (CDO), and a further $524bn in "synthetic" CDOs had effectively opened the lending taps even further. "Mortgage credit has become more available and on easier terms to borrowers almost everywhere. Only in recent months has the downside become more apparent," it said.

CDO's are bond-like packages of mortgages and other forms of debt. The BIS said banks transfer the exposure to buyers of the securities, giving them little incentive to assess risk or carry out due diligence.

Mergers and takeovers reached $4.1 trillion worldwide last year.

Leveraged buy-outs touched $753bn, with an average debt/cash flow ratio hitting a record 5:4.

"Sooner or later the credit cycle will turn and default rates will begin to rise," said the bank.

"The levels of leverage employed in private equity transactions have raised questions about their longer-term sustainability. The strategy depends on the availability of cheap funding," it said.

That may not last much longer.

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[ 翻译 ]

国际清算银行警告:信用狂欢可能造成30年代级别的大衰退

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/bis-warns-credit-spree-could/story.aspx?guid=%7BCEDD1FDC%2D721B%2D4441%2D86A3%2DC843C1923B8C%7D

国际清算银行警告信用狂欢可能造成30年代级别的大衰退

2007年6月25日

[ 摘要 ]

国际清算银行发出警告,多年来的货币宽松政策已经产生了危险的信用泡沫,世界经济正面临着另一场1930年级别衰退的危险比人们料想的更加严重。

几乎没有人能事先预料到1930年的大衰退,或90年代重创日本和东南亚地区的金融危机。

事实上,每一次危机之前都经历了一段没有通货膨胀的黄金岁月,乐观的情绪使得评论家们欢呼一个"新的时代"已经到来。

国际清算银行-中央银行家的银行,指出了许多令人担心的方面,它们包括:海量发行的信用(债务)工具,飞升的房地产债务规模,投资者对高度风险投资的贪婪,国际货币系统严重的失衡状态。

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[ 翻译全文 ]

国际清算银行警告信用狂欢可能造成30年代级别的大衰退

2007年6月25日


国际清算银行(BIS),世界上最具有权威的金融机构,最近发出警告说,多年来的宽松货币政策促发了一次危险的信贷泡沫,这将导致全球经济比人们以为的那样更加脆弱,最终陷入30年代那样的经济衰退中去。

BIS说,中国可能已经重现了80年代日本所经历的灾难性的错误。

BIS说,“其实没有人曾经预言到30年代的大衰退,也没有谁预见到90年代重挫日本和东南亚发展的那场经济危机。事实上,每一次经济形势转折之前,都有一段无通胀增长的时期,繁荣的景象使众多的评论家相信,‘一个新的时代到来了’。”

作为各国央行的中央银行,BIS指出一系列令人担忧的信号已经开始汇聚出现,比如发行了大量的新型信贷工具,房产债务节节攀升,投资者对风险全然不顾,以及世界货币体制徘徊不去的失衡。

每次经济危机的爆发,都掩藏在良好的经济形势下。在转折点上,影响转折的最后一件事情对全球经济造成的影响所花费的代价要远远高于通常估计的程度。

BIS说中国可能已经重现了80年代日本所经历的灾难性的错误。当时,东京任由流动性泛滥而视而不见。

“中国经济看上去正在展现出非常类似而又令人不安的症状,” BIS说,例如,信贷膨胀、资产价格高涨,以及重工业领域内的“巨量投资”。

“中国40%的国企处于亏损状态,将银行业置于崩溃的压力之下。”

它引用中国总理温家宝的话说,中国的经济增长是“不稳定、不平衡、不和谐、不可持续的”。

BIS也含蓄的批评了美联储。它说作为央行,美联储纵容资产价格泡沫膨胀,仅仅因为它假定泡沫以后可以安全的“清除掉”。(翻译插嘴:“假定”这个词用得很含蓄,很艺术。)这种策略或多或少来自美联储前任主席格林斯潘在网络泡沫破裂之后的做法。BIS说,美联储德这一行径引起了人们的怀疑。(翻译插嘴:不知道谁在“怀疑”,又在“怀疑”什么。)

它说这种方法在30年代的美国和90年代的日本都已经遭遇了失败,因为过量的债务和投资既产生了繁荣年代,也会带来致命的后果。(翻译插嘴:这句话很中肯。用借债来投资,既有投资的好处,又有债务的风险。最糟的结果应该就是投资所得全被债主掠取。货币战争的核心就在这里。主张用黄金作为货币的担保,本质在于确保投资是以已有的积累为基础,而不是以债务为基础。)

在危机中降低利率会有所助益,但这样做有一个后果就是,财富从债权人转移到了债务人那里,然后“吞下未来更糟糕的苦果”。(翻译插嘴:我看这句话恐怕是指鹿为马。)

BIS说,现在还不能清除的判断美国是否能够摆脱最近的经济失衡的后果,比如约占 GDP总值6.5%的经常账户赤字,从2001年到2005年间飞涨的四万亿美元外债,以及前所未有的储蓄率下降。“美元明显有一个脆弱的地方,那就是遭遇私有领域信心的突然降低。”BIS说。

BIS说去年创纪录地发行了4700亿美元的抵押贷款合同(CDO),而且还有5240亿美元“草拟中”的CDO。“无论在何地,抵押贷款都变得越来越容易,对借方的约束条款也越来越轻松。只是最近几个月才变得困难。”

CDO是一种类似债券一样的金融产品,它将抵押贷款和其他形式的债权打包出售。

去年全球范围内企业合并和接管价值总额高达4.1万亿美元。

杠杆收购总额达到了7530亿美元,其中的平均债务对现金流的比率高达5:4。

“早晚,信贷循环会掉头,拖欠率会升高。”BIS说

“在私有资产交易中使用的杠杆水平已经引起了他们长期可持续性方面的问题。策略取决于低成本筹资的能力。”它说。

这恐怕不会持续多久了。(翻译插嘴:这句话作为结尾,让人不寒而栗阿。)



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