I have been hesistating to post sth like this in the horror of price drop, I have no ability to tell short term price movement, but fundamentally it is worth to discuss a stock's risks:
1. The biggest risk is that DNDN get bought out at a value way lower than its potential, for example, my cost basis is 16, and if DNDN got bought out at 10 tomorrow, that is a permanent loss for me, so think about it accordlingly in your own situation.
2. Current 9902B trial may not yield satisfactory result enough for FDA to approve it in 2008 or 2011, even though I believe that "it is substantial evident" that DNDN works, but still there is a slight chance it may not, not a big risk, I would say.
3. funding and dilution problems, this is third biggest risk, DNDN hired a lot of people recently in anticipation of approval, how managerment is going to manage expense, seek parternership/funding, timing of events all represent some risks.
4. 9902B design problems, 9902B design is not for survival as end point, I think they expanded the trial and modified 9902B to use survival as end point. I am not that good at deciding whether this is something significant or not.
5. 9902B crossover issue in control arm, I heard people are talking about this, has some vague understanding, not very clear.
In summary, these are the risks I can think of, there is no single investment in this world that has no risks, people are telling me that Buffett does not touch investment that have danger of risks, I do not agree with that. Buffett just do not touch investment he does not understand and he does not invest in sth he thinks is overvalued, if he does not touch sth has risks, he should not travel by plane, he should not buy his Berkshire company at the beginning. Berkshire had great risk at that time facing competition from overseas, but Buffett just think it is too cheap. OK, enough, I think DNDN still has great potential, I still owns my half position, still looking to buy them back when opportunities present themselves.
Good Luck!
1. The biggest risk is that DNDN get bought out at a value way lower than its potential, for example, my cost basis is 16, and if DNDN got bought out at 10 tomorrow, that is a permanent loss for me, so think about it accordlingly in your own situation.
2. Current 9902B trial may not yield satisfactory result enough for FDA to approve it in 2008 or 2011, even though I believe that "it is substantial evident" that DNDN works, but still there is a slight chance it may not, not a big risk, I would say.
3. funding and dilution problems, this is third biggest risk, DNDN hired a lot of people recently in anticipation of approval, how managerment is going to manage expense, seek parternership/funding, timing of events all represent some risks.
4. 9902B design problems, 9902B design is not for survival as end point, I think they expanded the trial and modified 9902B to use survival as end point. I am not that good at deciding whether this is something significant or not.
5. 9902B crossover issue in control arm, I heard people are talking about this, has some vague understanding, not very clear.
In summary, these are the risks I can think of, there is no single investment in this world that has no risks, people are telling me that Buffett does not touch investment that have danger of risks, I do not agree with that. Buffett just do not touch investment he does not understand and he does not invest in sth he thinks is overvalued, if he does not touch sth has risks, he should not travel by plane, he should not buy his Berkshire company at the beginning. Berkshire had great risk at that time facing competition from overseas, but Buffett just think it is too cheap. OK, enough, I think DNDN still has great potential, I still owns my half position, still looking to buy them back when opportunities present themselves.
Good Luck!
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