言归正转 --- 明天的非农报告至关重要，有可能影响下一步走势

下面是我的瞎猜：

报告太热： Payroll 大于180K， 失业率低于4.1%，每小时平均收入月增幅高于0.04%

           Inflation fear:   SPY/QQQ/IWM down. QQQ will complete C wave and find support around 485-490. 20年国债会向5.5%爬去

报告太冷： Payroll 小于100K， 失业率高于4.3%，每小时平均收入月增幅0.03%

           recession fear:  SPY/QQQ/IWM may rebound initially, 20Y 国债回调到4.5%. But QQQ will eventually come back to test support at 485-490, due to recession worry

报告正好： Payroll 100-180K， 失业率4.1% 到4.2%，每小时平均收入月增幅0.03%

            Goldilock: Market rally. We may see QQQ go back to 531 eventually. However, whether we can go to new ATH depends on future economic data and Trump policy, as well Mag7 earning starting end of Jan. 20Y 国债开始小幅回调

 

所有跟帖： 

• 赞！ 谢分析指导！ -不老企鹅- ♀ (0 bytes) () 01/09/2025 postreply 13:33:51

• 随着AI应用的深入，失业率很可能升高，所以驱逐非法移民和降息减税应该是川普在任的主旋律。 -6thsense- ♀ (0 bytes) () 01/09/2025 postreply 13:57:13

• Disagree. If yesterday’s ADP report indicated anything for -Stockticker- ♂ (144 bytes) () 01/09/2025 postreply 14:14:34

• 好的。一定会关注。 -有风景的房间- ♀ (0 bytes) () 01/09/2025 postreply 14:37:00

• 我估计就业率下降，inflation 压力上升。 -Hightides- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/09/2025 postreply 14:47:36

• wage monthly gain % will be closely watched -三心三意- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/09/2025 postreply 14:51:29

• 感觉数据as expected :) --隔三岔五来逛逛-- ♀ (30 bytes) () 01/09/2025 postreply 15:38:29

• Yahoo Finance 网上的猜测：“Economists expect that job growth last mont -新游客- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/09/2025 postreply 17:24:00

• Economists expect last month was solid — but relatively tame — a -新游客- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/09/2025 postreply 17:25:00

• Econmonth was solid — but relatively tame — at 153,000 and that -新游客- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/09/2025 postreply 17:26:00

• 难道不该等几个月后的校正回归？ -shaoning- ♀ (0 bytes) () 01/10/2025 postreply 04:05:30