小摩的研报，目前的ai资本开支如果到2030年要有10%的回报的话，相当于全球每个iPhone用户每月要花34刀，或者每个网飞用户每月180刀。每月34刀什么概念，等于每年快2900人民币，等于最新一代iPhone pro第一年的贬值速度。
等于相当于全世界所有苹果用户体量的消费者，用年年换新顶配iPhone的钱给ai公司交会员费，才能让目前的投资有像样的回报。
正常的LLM邪教徒我看也不敢在C端有此等狂想，那就只能看B端能不能救回来了。
Big picture, to drive a 10% return on our modeled AI investments through 2030 would require ~$650 billion of annual revenue into perpetuity, which is an astonishingly large number. But for context, that equates to 58bp of global GDP, or $34.72/month from every current iPhone user, or $180/month from every Netflix subscriber. How that is apportioned between corporations, governments and consumers is, of course, a long-term debate. Regardless, even if everything works, there will be (continued) spectacular winners, and probably some equally spectacular losers as well given the a
