ubs认为明年欧股和世界股市可能会underperform美股，欧洲佬果然很聪明。

UBS predicts the U.S. will lead global equity performance, forecasting roughly 10% returns for the market next year. UBS added that the S&P 500’s gains will come mainly from earnings rather than valuation expansion. 

“The contribution from valuation is likely to be a small negative,” the analysts said, though they noted that “risks to multiples and the market are skewed to the upside” due to persistent inflows.

UBS expects the rally to broaden beyond large-cap technology names by the second quarter of 2026. 

“We should see a broadening of the rally into lower-quality cyclicals,” the firm wrote, following a period of consolidation early in the year.

While Europe and emerging markets should also deliver “decent earnings” and returns of about 8%, UBS believes they will “mildly underperform” U.S. equities.