What is Monte Carlo simulation?

Cathie Wood's Bold Prediction: Is a 500% Increase Possible for Tesla?

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/07/03/cathie-woods-bold-prediction-is-a-500-increase-pos/

 

Ark Invest conducted a Monte Carlo simulation to forecast Tesla's future performance by 2026.

Ark Invest derived three main scenarios for Tesla's potential stock price from the simulation. The bull case projected a price of $1,900, representing the upper 75th percentile of all outcomes. On the other hand, the bear case predicted a price of $966, reflecting the lower 25th percentile. The expected scenario took the average of all outcomes and settled at a price of $1,533 per share, representing a percent change of more than 500% from today's price of about $260, which would result in a market cap of about $5 trillion.

 

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