这是一个貌似有理却根本错误的想法

本帖于 2022-10-14 20:58:35 时间, 由普通用户 万里归途 编辑

通常利息高了,公司提价把成本转给消费者就行了,为什么股市会跌?因为股市的估值是以RISK-FREE的国债收益为参考的,国债收益率高了,股价就要下跌,国债和股市是此消彼长的关系。

 

现在股市和债市是同舟共济,相如与沫,唇亡齿寒,荣辱与共的难兄难弟的关系,这样的想法当然就不成立了。

 

 

 

 

10 yr yield closed above 4% first time since late 2007......

 
来源:  于 2022-10-14 19:44:42 [] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读: 510 次 (1039 bytes)

it is very significant.......i have said here in my previous post that i am expecting 10 yr yield above 4% in short time and 5% in medium time....and I also said that all the calculus of assets have changed with risk free rate going north and mostly will stay there for decades......for your reference, current S&P500 yield is less than 2%......

so........don't gamble your hard earn money.....it's foolish to guess the bottom.....if people here do that i am sure you will lose all to the pros.....trading the short term waves up or down is not for most ppl...i have seen that many times over....put your money into CD or ladder the treasury.....preserve your capital until the birth of bull market which no visibility.....

follow the king dollar and 10 yr yield......all the other assets values are derivatives of these two......and you know who decides the king dollar and 10yr yield......so follow the Fed no matter whether Fed is right or wrong......

所有跟帖: 

人类不可能长期持有现金,这肯定是没错的。现金长期看就是垃圾。 -万里归途- 给 万里归途 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/14/2022 postreply 21:00:11

借着酒兴多想了一些,全球一体化是否2022年而历史逆转?新的冷战会不会开始? -万里归途- 给 万里归途 发送悄悄话 (346 bytes) () 10/14/2022 postreply 21:10:51

美国佬是不可能让你中俄联盟统治世界的。 -lanyin0314- 给 lanyin0314 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/14/2022 postreply 21:16:55

中俄联盟对扛美国佬,并不是称霸世界,那时中俄反而要决裂了。 -万里归途- 给 万里归途 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/14/2022 postreply 21:47:50

这个有远见,中俄猜忌非常深,没有外部威胁自己就会干仗,俄最怕中国收复远东,以前是冰天雪地现在是资源无数 -_学无止境- 给 _学无止境 发送悄悄话 _学无止境 的博客首页 (114 bytes) () 10/15/2022 postreply 10:48:01

替你捏把汗 -sea934- 给 sea934 发送悄悄话 sea934 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/14/2022 postreply 21:16:57

我知道你是谁了 -喜喜哈哈- 给 喜喜哈哈 发送悄悄话 喜喜哈哈 的博客首页 (19 bytes) () 10/14/2022 postreply 21:13:17

谁?哪里暴漏了? -万里归途- 给 万里归途 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/14/2022 postreply 21:14:45

The wine lady? -Leo_NB12- 给 Leo_NB12 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/14/2022 postreply 22:15:02

眼镜还是火爆? -华尔街复仇记- 给 华尔街复仇记 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/15/2022 postreply 05:22:45

请您先登陆,再发跟帖!