Weekly Trade Alert.

Conclusions.  Several weeks ago, I indicated that the next round of stimulus, expected to be a $1T+ Cares package, would likely raise the SPX to test the June highs at 3250.  Now with projections of $1.5T due late July to early Aug, the question remains as to whether the pullback will precede or follow a test of SPX 3250.  Recent price action is stronger than expected, implying a "buy the rumor, sell the news" event but options OI is still suggesting a less direct route forward.

Current sentiment supports a 3-5% pullback from current levels, but a continued advance may result in more extreme sentiment followed by a larger pullback.  One such scenario is suggested by Trader Joe where an EW WXY pattern reaches SPX 3250 then pulls back to 3000.

Weekly Trade Alert.  No clear path at this time.  Updates @mrktsignals.