market trend from decisionpoint.com

i am reading "mastering the trade" by John Carter. he recommended www.decisionpoint.com. took a look of the website.

just FYI, here is the link:
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/091218_cspot.html


ANALYSIS OF THREE TIME FRAMES
12/18/2009




Analysis of Three Time Frames
by Carl Swenlin
December 18, 2009

EDITOR'S NOTE: Next Friday is Christmas, so I will not be writing a Chart Spotlight article next week. We wish you the very best for the holidays.

Since this will be our last article for 2009, I thought it would be appropriate to do an analysis of the short-, medium-, and long-term charts and synthesize a broad outlook for the market.

In my December 4 article I said we should expect an upside breakout, but the market has continued to consolidate in a very narrow range, still testing the long-term overhead resistance which is drawn across the declining tops beginning with the 2007 top. In the short term, we are looking at several weeks of consolidation, which is also known as a continuation pattern. This means that the most likely resolution will be an upside breakout that will continue the rally that began from the November lows.

There is also the issue of the ascending wedge pattern, which normally breaks to the downside. Should that happen, there is support at about 1050, on the botom of the slightly rising trend channel. Because the two prominent short-term set ups are in opposition, I would have to say that the short-term (days to weeks) picture is neutral.



With two opposing possible short-term outcomes, let's look at the weekly chart, which gives us a medium-term (weeks to months) view of the market. This chart looks bearish. We can see price stalling at resistance, and the PMO is overbought and trying to roll over. The strongest message from this chart is that a medium-term correction is about to begin.

Finally, the monthly chart looks very bullish for the long term (months to years). I say that primarily because the PMO has turned up from a deeply oversold reading and has passed up through its 10-EMA. This is about as bullish a picture as you are likely to see on a monthly chart. Keep in mind that this doesn't override the medium-term or short-term picture. If you study the chart carefully, you will see that quite violent price swings can occur without causing the monthly PMO to change direction. Nevertheless, the overriding message is that the long-term direction of the market is most likely to be up.



Bottom Line: The short-term chart presents two opposite possible outcomes, but the medium-term (stronger) time frame points toward a correction of modest duration; therefore, an upside breakout is unlikely to be sustained. The long-term (strongest) chart tells us that, regardless of how severe a correction we experience, the bull market will ultimately prevail.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. Be prepared to adjust your tactics and strategy if conditions change.

所有跟帖： 

• 写的挺好的.图也画的很好.谢谢分享. -春山再醒- ♀ (0 bytes) () 12/19/2009 postreply 23:29:48

• 我还以为我这个最晚的冠军是拿定地呢.转个贴给你,8要笑. -春山再醒- ♀ (5929 bytes) () 12/20/2009 postreply 00:58:30

• funny -TibiBear- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/20/2009 postreply 07:14:07