Summary of Tesla Q3 Earning Conference Call Q&A

本帖于 2025-10-22 18:29:10 时间, 由版主 lionhill 编辑

1. The Affordable Vehicle / Robotaxi Strategy

Affordable Model Outlook: When pressed on the long-anticipated affordable model (often speculated to be around $25,000), Elon Musk downplayed the need for a non-autonomous, regular low-cost car, stating it would be "pointless."

Focus on Cybercab/Robotaxi: The company emphasized that its main focus for the next-generation platform is the autonomous two-seat "Cybercab," with a target for significant production (Musk mentioned at least 2 million units a year eventually). The implied message was that the future low-cost vehicle is essentially an autonomous taxi, not a standard consumer vehicle.

2. Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Regulatory Timeline

Unsupervised FSD: Management reiterated the expectation of achieving unsupervised FSD (Full Self-Driving) capability on the existing fleet (HW3/HW4) sometime in the following year.

Regulatory Approvals: They specifically addressed the regulatory landscape, stating they expect to get approval to roll out unsupervised autonomous driving in California and Texas first, followed by other states. Musk advocated for a federal approval process to simplify and speed up deployment.

FSD Progress: The company cited substantial improvement in FSD safety metrics, expecting a massive improvement in miles between interventions compared to the previous year.

3. Financials, Margins, and Growth

Gross Margin Pressure: Analysts expressed concern about the automotive gross margin (excluding regulatory credits), which remained under pressure due to global price cuts, increased labor/input costs, and rising competition.

Regulatory Credits: The decline in revenue from regulatory credits (which historically bolstered profits) was noted as a significant headwind on profitability.

2025 Growth Target: Musk provided a rough estimate of 20% to 30% vehicle growth for the next year, noting this target is dependent on avoiding negative external events.

4. Energy and Optimus (Robotics)

Energy Storage Growth: Management highlighted the Energy Generation and Storage business as a strong performer, reporting record gross margins and calling its growth "gigantic" due to high demand, especially from AI applications.

Optimus: Questions were asked about the progress and challenges of bringing the Optimus humanoid robot to market, including hardware engineering, training models, and supply chain. The company acknowledged that refining the robot's design and capability (especially the hands) for real-world application is a key focus.

 

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Robotaxi 之所以新城市还用安全员是为了handle1/10000case, 2个月后撤掉 -lionhill- 给 lionhill 发送悄悄话 lionhill 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/22/2025 postreply 15:49:11

FSD 14将逐渐加进reasoning function在停车场判断是否还有车位或先让车主下自己去找停车位 -lionhill- 给 lionhill 发送悄悄话 lionhill 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/22/2025 postreply 15:50:58

这个功能在湾区的Costco最实用,一想到停车和走路我去哪都不去Costco -dancingpig- 给 dancingpig 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/22/2025 postreply 15:59:43

Elon今天的CC刚开始的tone有点不自信,后来好很多, -bogbog- 给 bogbog 发送悄悄话 bogbog 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/22/2025 postreply 15:56:11

420 is hold for now. We will see tomrorow. -bogbog- 给 bogbog 发送悄悄话 bogbog 的博客首页 (212 bytes) () 10/22/2025 postreply 16:03:34

I am a big fan of him too! -marilyn- 给 marilyn 发送悄悄话 marilyn 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/22/2025 postreply 16:21:19

这个ER只能说是In-line。不算好 -越王剑- 给 越王剑 发送悄悄话 越王剑 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/22/2025 postreply 16:05:18

嗯,对特斯拉特殊照顾,算“还可以”, 要是别的公司,那就不怎么cool... -bogbog- 给 bogbog 发送悄悄话 bogbog 的博客首页 (167 bytes) () 10/22/2025 postreply 16:09:29

“negative external events“ 是指什么? -越王剑- 给 越王剑 发送悄悄话 越王剑 的博客首页 (36 bytes) () 10/22/2025 postreply 16:04:31

我想指的这两方面 -lionhill- 给 lionhill 发送悄悄话 lionhill 的博客首页 (2028 bytes) () 10/22/2025 postreply 16:08:05

谢谢 -越王剑- 给 越王剑 发送悄悄话 越王剑 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/22/2025 postreply 16:10:00

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