My assumption is that this superpower won't just decline like that. It will decline in the long run, but just not now.
Mccain is going to win. So there will be more wars.
To counter all the fundamentals that drive down the dollars, there seems to be only one way - using military muscle to stir up conflicts, so that when the whole world is in a chaos, "political fundamentals" and "military fundamentals" will be more important than economic fundamentals. Then again, US dollars can rise.
So, does that mean more conflicts in the middle east? Not really, because chaos in the middle east does not overwhelmingly threaten Euro region and China relative to USA, as high oil price simply hurts everyone. More importantly, high oil price actually benefits Russia.
What can really "overwhelmingly threaten Euro region relative to USA" is to escalate hostility and tension with Russia. And perhaps some attempt to break up Euro. If Euro region faces military/politcal threat and internal dispute and conflict, that will drive up US dollars relative to Euro.
What can really "overwhelmingly threaten China relative to USA" is to stir things up between China and Japan, and across the Taiwan Strait. Another area of interest is sub-sahara Africa. If the U.S. intervene aggressively there and pop up some anti-China regime, China is going to pay dearly for the lost investment there and also will be forced to chase the sky-rocketing spot market.
Mccain is going to win. So there will be more wars.
To counter all the fundamentals that drive down the dollars, there seems to be only one way - using military muscle to stir up conflicts, so that when the whole world is in a chaos, "political fundamentals" and "military fundamentals" will be more important than economic fundamentals. Then again, US dollars can rise.
So, does that mean more conflicts in the middle east? Not really, because chaos in the middle east does not overwhelmingly threaten Euro region and China relative to USA, as high oil price simply hurts everyone. More importantly, high oil price actually benefits Russia.
What can really "overwhelmingly threaten Euro region relative to USA" is to escalate hostility and tension with Russia. And perhaps some attempt to break up Euro. If Euro region faces military/politcal threat and internal dispute and conflict, that will drive up US dollars relative to Euro.
What can really "overwhelmingly threaten China relative to USA" is to stir things up between China and Japan, and across the Taiwan Strait. Another area of interest is sub-sahara Africa. If the U.S. intervene aggressively there and pop up some anti-China regime, China is going to pay dearly for the lost investment there and also will be forced to chase the sky-rocketing spot market.
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