Though there will be another leg down, the bottom is close

I think the correction is man made. The intention is to cool down the market a little bit. To minimize the price of the correction (MM has to sell pretty much to shot down the market), the correction has to be a quick one. So we see a crash of last two week. Only several days down 700 points. If they really want to sell, why so quickly? They can sell several weeks like last year. By the way, the reason is not a severe one, just subprime motigage, which only hurts a small section of the market.

I am a bear around 13,800 since GDP is too good. All this has some relation with politics. The administration is not accused of being bad at market because the economic development is quick but is accused of being bad at high oil price and inflation. So PPT does little to help the market this time. Paulson said "risk has to be repriced". This means that the fall down of the market is justified in his eyes. Also look at the oil price, GS predicts that oil price will reach 80 or even 90. Same thing happens in the fall down last year.

I think the fall down is well coordinated. In the IBD article, there are several factors that made it belive 14000 is top. One of it is oil price. If oil price is below 70, the factor will be a support for the market.
Like last years, the sector of oil has been punched. Material will be the next. Retail, biomed will be booming as oil drops. A new bull is close.

I agree that the market will at least fall close to 13200 (dow) and probably lower than 13000 to confirm the bottom. I agree that the market will first fluctuate. But I think the bottom will not be much lower than 12795.

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• 回复：Though there will be another leg down, the bottom is close -wagen- ♂ (411 bytes) () 08/07/2007 postreply 05:49:02