现金流VS高增值

假设20年前都拥有4万元，三种投资方案。

A: 投资高增值但是是负现金流的房子。20年房子增值4倍，房价是原来的5倍，房子年增长率8.4%。租金年增长率6.0%。各种维护开销是房价3%。租金原来只有1000，现在3200。Plan A 利率6%.

数字是假设的，我做了excel表格。如果大家有兴趣我可以用你当地的数据。

 

B: 投资低增值但是是正现金流的房子。20年房子增值1.5倍，房子年增长率4.7%。租金年增长率4.7%。就是大家经常说的1%rule的房子。各种维护开销是房价4%, 比上面高1%。Plan B 利率6.5%，也比上面高。 

 

 

如果是你，你会选择A还是B呢？

 

PLAN　A

 

Plan A
20 Years Ago: Year 1998			Interest Rate		6.00%	Now Year 2018
House price		200000	Growth Rate		8.4%	House price	1000000
Rent		1000	Rent Growth Rate		6.0%	Rent	3200
Yearly W2 cash for investment		0	W2 growth rate		4.0%
Cash on hand		40000	Maintenance cost of house price		3.0%
Year	# House Had	House Price	Down Payment	Rent	Mortgage/mo	Insurance, tax, vacancy, management /mo	Cash flow/mo	Cash flow/ye	W2 cash	Total cash	Buy House Next Year?	Principe paid	Net Worth
1	1	$200,000	40000	1000	($959)	($500)	($459)	($5,511)	0	-5511	FALSE	2024	$36,512
2	1	$216,760	43352	1060	($959)	($542)	($441)	($5,296)	0	-10807	FALSE	2145	$50,122
3	1	$234,924	46985	1123	($959)	($587)	($423)	($5,079)	0	-15886	FALSE	2274	$65,481
4	1	$254,610	50922	1191	($959)	($637)	($405)	($4,862)	0	-20748	FALSE	2410	$82,715
5	1	$275,946	55189	1262	($959)	($690)	($387)	($4,647)	0	-25395	FALSE	2555	$101,960
6	1	$299,070	59814	1337	($959)	($748)	($369)	($4,434)	0	-29829	FALSE	2708	$123,358
7	1	$324,131	64826	1418	($959)	($810)	($352)	($4,224)	0	-34053	FALSE	2871	$147,066
8	1	$351,293	70259	1502	($959)	($878)	($335)	($4,021)	0	-38074	FALSE	3043	$173,250
9	1	$380,731	76146	1592	($959)	($952)	($319)	($3,824)	0	-41898	FALSE	3226	$202,089
10	1	$412,635	82527	1688	($959)	($1,032)	($303)	($3,637)	0	-45535	FALSE	3419	$233,776
11	1	$447,214	89443	1789	($959)	($1,118)	($288)	($3,462)	0	-48996	FALSE	3624	$268,517
12	1	$484,689	96938	1896	($959)	($1,212)	($275)	($3,300)	0	-52297	FALSE	3842	$306,535
13	1	$525,306	105061	2010	($959)	($1,313)	($263)	($3,156)	0	-55453	FALSE	4072	$348,067
14	1	$569,325	113865	2130	($959)	($1,423)	($253)	($3,033)	0	-58486	FALSE	4317	$393,370
15	1	$617,034	123407	2257	($959)	($1,543)	($244)	($2,934)	0	-61420	FALSE	4576	$442,720
16	1	$668,740	133748	2393	($959)	($1,672)	($239)	($2,863)	0	-64283	FALSE	4850	$496,414
17	1	$724,780	144956	2536	($959)	($1,812)	($235)	($2,825)	0	-67108	FALSE	5141	$554,770
18	1	$785,515	157103	2688	($959)	($1,964)	($235)	($2,825)	0	-69932	FALSE	5450	$618,130
19	1	$851,340	170268	2849	($959)	($2,128)	($239)	($2,868)	0	-72800	FALSE	5777	$686,864
20	1	$922,681	184536	3019	($959)	($2,307)	($247)	($2,961)	0	-75762	FALSE	6123	$761,367
21	1	$1,000,000	200000	3200	($959)	($2,500)	($259)	($3,111)	0	-78873	FALSE	6491	$842,065

PLAN　B　２０年后会是多少钱呢？

 

Plan B
20 Years Ago: Year 1998			Interest Rate		6.50%	Now Year 2018
House price		60000	House Price Growth Rate		4.7%	House price	150000
Rent		600	Rent Growth Rate		4.7%	Rent	1500
Yearly W2 cash for investment		0	W2 growth rate		4.0%
Cash on hand		40000	Maintenance cost of house price		4.0%
Year	# House Had	House Price	Down Payment	Rent	Mortgage/mo	Insurance, tax, vacancy, management /mo	Cash flow/mo	Cash flow/ye	W2 cash	Total cash	Buy House Next Year?	Principe paid	Net Worth
1	3	$60,000	12000	1800	($910)	($600)	$290	$3,478	0	7478	FALSE	1667	$45,145
2	3	$62,813	12563	1884	($910)	($628)	$346	$4,153	0	11631	FALSE	1776	$59,512
3	3	$65,757	13151	1973	($910)	($658)	$405	$4,860	0	16490	TRUE	1891	$75,097
4	4	$68,840	13768	2754	($1,258)	($918)	$577	$6,930	0	9652	FALSE	2685	$149,032
5	4	$72,067	14413	2883	($1,258)	($961)	$664	$7,962	0	17614	TRUE	2860	$172,763
6	5	$75,446	15089	3772	($1,640)	($1,257)	$875	$10,501	0	13026	FALSE	3807	$260,942
7	5	$78,983	15797	3949	($1,640)	($1,316)	$993	$11,916	0	24942	TRUE	4054	$294,597
8	6	$82,686	16537	4961	($2,058)	($1,654)	$1,250	$14,995	0	23400	TRUE	5181	$399,435
9	7	$86,562	17312	6059	($2,496)	($2,020)	$1,544	$18,528	0	24615	TRUE	6438	$516,908
10	8	$90,620	18124	7250	($2,954)	($2,417)	$1,879	$22,551	0	29042	TRUE	7836	$648,198
11	9	$94,868	18974	8538	($3,434)	($2,846)	$2,259	$27,103	0	37172	TRUE	9388	$794,570
12	10	$99,316	19863	9932	($3,936)	($3,311)	$2,685	$32,224	0	49533	TRUE	11110	$957,384
13	12	$103,972	20794	12477	($4,987)	($4,159)	$3,331	$39,967	0	68705	TRUE	14198	$1,245,257
14	15	$108,846	21769	16327	($6,638)	($5,442)	$4,246	$50,955	0	97891	TRUE	18901	$1,678,373
15	19	$113,949	22790	21650	($8,943)	($7,217)	$5,490	$65,885	0	140987	TRUE	25498	$2,279,302
16	24	$119,291	23858	28630	($11,959)	($9,543)	$7,127	$85,529	0	202658	TRUE	34301	$3,073,224
17	32	$124,883	24977	39963	($17,011)	($13,321)	$9,631	$115,570	0	293251	TRUE	48708	$4,345,805
18	43	$130,738	26148	56217	($24,283)	($18,739)	$13,195	$158,344	0	425448	TRUE	69705	$6,173,165
19	58	$136,867	27373	79383	($34,664)	($26,461)	$18,258	$219,095	0	617169	TRUE	100132	$8,781,564
20	79	$143,283	28657	113193	($49,879)	($37,731)	$25,584	$307,004	0	895516	TRUE	145252	$12,586,252
21	108	$150,000	30000	162000	($71,875)	($54,000)	$36,125	$433,504	0	1299020	TRUE	211480	$18,081,890

 

低增值的PLAN C，增值也就和通胀打平。20年后5million.

 

Plan C
20 Years Ago: Year 1998			Interest Rate		6.50%	Now Year 2018
House price		80000	House Price Growth Rate		2.8%	House price	140000
Rent		800	Rent Growth Rate		2.8%	Rent	1400
Yearly W2 cash for investment		0	W2 growth rate		4.0%
Cash on hand		40000	Maintenance cost of house price		4.0%
Year	# House Had	House Price	Down Payment	Rent	Mortgage/mo	Insurance, tax, vacancy, management /mo	Cash flow/mo	Cash flow/ye	W2 cash	Total cash	Buy House Next Year?	Principe paid	Net Worth
1	2	$80,000	16000	1600	($809)	($533)	$258	$3,091	0	11091	FALSE	1482	$44,573
2	2	$82,270	16454	1645	($809)	($548)	$288	$3,455	0	14546	FALSE	1578	$54,146
3	2	$84,605	16921	1692	($809)	($564)	$319	$3,828	0	18374	TRUE	1681	$64,324
4	3	$87,005	17401	2610	($1,249)	($870)	$491	$5,893	0	6867	FALSE	2685	$147,309
5	3	$89,474	17895	2684	($1,249)	($895)	$540	$6,486	0	13352	FALSE	2860	$164,061
6	3	$92,013	18403	2760	($1,249)	($920)	$591	$7,095	0	20448	TRUE	3046	$181,818
7	4	$94,624	18925	3785	($1,727)	($1,262)	$796	$9,550	0	11073	FALSE	4325	$279,225
8	4	$97,309	19462	3892	($1,727)	($1,297)	$867	$10,409	0	21482	TRUE	4606	$304,980
9	5	$100,070	20014	5004	($2,233)	($1,668)	$1,102	$13,226	0	14695	FALSE	6131	$415,439
10	5	$102,910	20582	5145	($2,233)	($1,715)	$1,197	$14,362	0	29057	TRUE	6530	$450,529
11	6	$105,830	21166	6350	($2,769)	($2,117)	$1,465	$17,575	0	25466	TRUE	8345	$575,715
12	7	$108,833	21767	7618	($3,319)	($2,539)	$1,760	$21,119	0	24819	TRUE	10369	$712,288
13	8	$111,921	22384	8954	($3,885)	($2,985)	$2,084	$25,011	0	27446	TRUE	12621	$861,074
14	9	$115,097	23019	10359	($4,467)	($3,453)	$2,439	$29,268	0	33694	TRUE	15121	$1,022,948
15	10	$118,363	23673	11836	($5,065)	($3,945)	$2,826	$33,906	0	43928	TRUE	17893	$1,198,831
16	11	$121,722	24344	13389	($5,681)	($4,463)	$3,245	$38,945	0	58528	TRUE	20962	$1,389,702
17	13	$125,176	25035	16273	($6,947)	($5,424)	$3,902	$46,822	0	80315	TRUE	26383	$1,726,217
18	16	$128,728	25746	20596	($8,900)	($6,865)	$4,831	$57,977	0	112546	TRUE	34582	$2,225,391
19	20	$132,381	26476	26476	($11,577)	($8,825)	$6,074	$72,884	0	158954	TRUE	46038	$2,905,803
20	25	$136,137	27227	34034	($15,019)	($11,345)	$7,671	$92,046	0	223773	TRUE	61288	$3,787,723
21	32	$140,000	28000	44800	($19,974)	($14,933)	$9,892	$118,707	0	314480	TRUE	83548	$5,038,553

所有跟帖： 

• 房子增值同时正现金流， -又当爹来又当妈- ♀ (91 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 05:20:22

• 如果每年都不断地追加投资，从2万开始。 Plan A 3million，plan B: 674million -rapidestate- ♂ (23902 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 05:24:38

• 但是追加投资的时候不能用$12000 down pay算了，要用当时market rate -若拙- ♀ (191 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 06:14:23

• 新买的房子是考虑了当年的价格的。 -rapidestate- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 08:41:38

• 我早就说了租金比增值重要的多，指数增长！ -sunpriest- ♂ (173 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 06:34:18

• 假设二十年每年都有1%正现金流的房子，你当然赚了。 -柠檬椰子汁- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 06:47:08

• A 租金增值6.0%。B租金只有4.7%增值。目的是A，B对比。说一个你认为的数字，我可以算。 -rapidestate- ♂ (75 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 07:07:57

• 说这些都没用。在哪儿吃哪儿的饭。有增值的吃增值的饭，有现金的吃现金的饭。啥也没有的。。。 -borisg- ♂ (176 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 06:47:14

• 有人异地也做得很好。讨论的是理念。 -rapidestate- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 08:08:02

• 这是地主的通病，薯老爷也犯过。 -sweetptt- ♂ (194 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 07:06:52

• +1 -pigtiger1973- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 08:07:29

• 哎，果不其然 -berman1- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 11:13:07

• Shoot on the star, land on the moon. -rapidestate- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 08:11:46

• 解刨超高回报的特例学习借鉴的指导意义更大。 -IEbird- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 08:26:58

• 终于有个明白人。纠结于具体某个数字是否对错是舍本逐末。 -rapidestate- ♂ (128 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 08:34:16

• I presented last week, nobody believed me thinking I am crazy -sunpriest- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 09:50:16

• You are crazy because you don't have insurance -rapidestate- ♂ (36 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 10:40:09

• I saved 250k with stupid insurance charge ! Last 14 years -sunpriest- ♂ (259 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 10:44:01

• 没必要省这个钱。 -rapidestate- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 10:51:05

• 我换一家保险公司银行马上就知道，会来信要求update -whitebrier- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 18:34:51

• 是博士地主的通病，哈哈 -tz2000- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 10:23:42

• 理论指导实践。现实中买到1%不难，难的是租金跟不上房价。 -rapidestate- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 10:55:55

• 太复杂了。每个deal尽量做好就行了。理论推导是卖保险的给客户画饼时用的 -新手地主刚上路- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 07:07:24

• Misleading calculation -shanzhongke- ♂ (446 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 07:18:10

• B 已经考虑了1%的更高的费用。A 3%显然更低。如果把A改成4%。B改成5%。结论类似。 -rapidestate- ♂ (38 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 08:19:28

• 一看就是高学历的 -whitebrier- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 07:44:55

• This is normal, just using an academy way to simulate the proces -sunpriest- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 08:11:56

• EXCEL用不着高学历吧。我以前写过office大全。 -rapidestate- ♂ (44 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 08:37:33

• 有文化的人才会想做数据模型 -whitebrier- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 13:58:41

• 这二十年从来不跌不slow down哈，啥市场这么好。 -kozy- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 07:53:18

• 鸡蛋里挑骨头？这就是一个简单模型，即使把价格波动放进去你也不会同意波动的幅值 -rapidestate- ♂ (35 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 07:59:25

• 房市进场的时机最重要，市场的波动对投资者的盈利模式起最重要的作用，而你的计算不触及这个最重要的因素。 -kozy- ♀ (53 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 08:42:29

• 再强调一次，这是AB方法的对比。价格波动又有什么关系呢。 -rapidestate- ♂ (171 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 08:48:05

• A通过refi房子总数可大于1若干。 -IEbird- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 08:03:50

• 这是另外一个话题。B 也可以同样做。 -rapidestate- ♂ (97 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 08:29:45

• 有时间可以仔细推敲验证一下运算。如果结论成立对俺是颠覆性的。 -IEbird- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 08:35:44

• 建议B加上15%rent的PM cost, 因为B到后来就是full time job -若拙- ♀ (121 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 10:05:16

• 20个房子以前是可以自己管理的。20个之后可以考虑6-7%的费用。 -rapidestate- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 10:20:04

• 因为比较的话，这样比较公平。不是所有人都能管二十个房子的 -若拙- ♀ (119 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 10:26:43

• 要算管理费， A B都得算。A算上管理费，没希望买第二个了。 -rapidestate- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 10:36:47

• 那也可以把A也算上呀，15%PM cost，结果是怎样？ -若拙- ♀ (36 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 10:51:39

• 7%的管理费。A一直都是负现金流。B回报下降明显 -rapidestate- ♂ (25049 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 11:07:21

• 这还没有算leasing fee，假设每年都要换房客，70% leasing fee，会怎么样？ -若拙- ♀ (103 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 11:16:19

• 满足你，差距进一步缩小了。 -rapidestate- ♂ (24167 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 11:26:57

• 1:3, 真是没想到差距这么大，谢谢快兄！ -若拙- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 11:34:49

• 更公平一点： 每年充值7400. A可以达到收支平衡。A：920万 B：8米 -rapidestate- ♂ (24374 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 11:36:43

• Please also add in personal income tax -- Plan A has a lot of de -svll- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 11:48:14

• It's complicated. A需要1900才能收支平衡 -rapidestate- ♂ (26915 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 12:38:42

• Thanks for taking that in -svll- ♂ (143 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 13:29:38

• 看不懂，为什么plan a 920万，plan b 800.万？ -沙沦的玫瑰花- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 12:22:18

• 如果B做不到，可以做到C吧。C 应该是没人看得上的投资 -rapidestate- ♂ (32 bytes) () 11/09/2018 postreply 10:49:14

• 是不是这个道理: 无论什么东西，尽量好买的贵的，一般都有保留价值，增值潜力也高? -天地谈- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/10/2018 postreply 10:44:58

• 你太牛了！我一直在想这个问题。谢谢你 -meowi- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/10/2018 postreply 12:18:39

• Plan B calculation for Net Worth from year 4 to the end is incor -oneplus130- ♂ (19603 bytes) () 11/11/2018 postreply 18:44:01