401K 窝蛋历史数据对标基准
坛子上很多人指出股市真实的回报不能用现在的401K标准,必须结合30年前的收入。不然就是搞穿越历史式的投资。这话说的很对。所以我简单计算了一下。看看如果按照曾经的收入标准和曾经的401K上限,投资结果是怎样的。
大家可以自行对照这些对标基准,算算自己的nest egg为什么没有做到,或者为何超越。
先看第一组数据
如果你1987年,401K出台的时候,响应美国国家号召。一直买满401K。你的公司是铁公鸡一毛不拔。从来不给你match. 你的情况如何? 结果如下:
Age | Year | S&P return | Contribution | balance |
25 | 1987 | 5.25% | 7,000 | 0 |
26 | 1988 | 16.61% | 7,313 | 7000 |
27 | 1989 | 31.69% | 7,627 | 15475.7 |
28 | 1990 | -3.10% | 7,979 | 28006.9 |
29 | 1991 | 30.47% | 8,475 | 35117.7 |
30 | 1992 | 7.62% | 8,728 | 54293.1 |
31 | 1993 | 10.08% | 8,994 | 67158.2 |
32 | 1994 | 1.32% | 9,240 | 82921.8 |
33 | 1995 | 37.58% | 9,240 | 93256.4 |
34 | 1996 | 22.96% | 9,500 | 137542 |
35 | 1997 | 33.36% | 9,500 | 178622 |
36 | 1998 | 28.58% | 10,000 | 247710 |
37 | 1999 | 21.04% | 10,000 | 328506 |
38 | 2000 | -9.10% | 10,500 | 407623 |
39 | 2001 | -11.89% | 10,500 | 381029 |
40 | 2002 | -22.10% | 11,000 | 346225 |
41 | 2003 | 28.68% | 12,000 | 280709 |
42 | 2004 | 10.88% | 13,000 | 373217 |
43 | 2005 | 4.91% | 14,000 | 426823 |
44 | 2006 | 15.79% | 15,000 | 461780 |
45 | 2007 | 5.49% | 15500 | 549695 |
46 | 2008 | -37.00% | 16000 | 595373 |
47 | 2009 | 26.46% | 16500 | 391085 |
48 | 2010 | 15.06% | 17500 | 511066 |
49 | 2011 | 2.11% | 18000 | 605533 |
50 | 2012 | 16.00% | 18000 | 636309 |
51 | 2013 | 32.39% | 18000 | 756119 |
52 | 2014 | 13.69% | 18000 | 1019026 |
53 | 2015 | 1.38% | 18000 | 1176530 |
54 | 2016 | 12.87% | 18000 | 1210766 |
你现在应该有1.2millon了。如果你夫妻两个都工作,公司再有match.你应该有超过3-4million的401K在账号里。如果你少于这个数字,或者是因为你投资不利,或者是你自己没有很好的约束自己。或者因为你的管理费交的太高了。
如果你年龄比这个大,比如1970年你就开始工作。当时的年收入是2万美元,你拿出3000美元一年存在股市里。那么你的回报是多少呢?
Age | Year | S&P return | Contribution | balance |
25 | 1970 | 4.01% | 3,000 | 0 |
26 | 1971 | 14.31% | 3,150 | 3000 |
27 | 1972 | 18.98% | 3,308 | 6579.3 |
28 | 1973 | -14.66% | 3,473 | 11135.6 |
29 | 1974 | -26.47% | 3,647 | 12976 |
30 | 1975 | 37.20% | 3,829 | 13187.7 |
31 | 1976 | 23.84% | 4,020 | 21922.4 |
32 | 1977 | -7.18% | 4,221 | 31169 |
33 | 1978 | 6.56% | 4,432 | 33152.4 |
34 | 1979 | 18.44% | 4,654 | 39759.5 |
35 | 1980 | 32.50% | 4,887 | 51745.2 |
36 | 1981 | -4.92% | 5,131 | 73449.1 |
37 | 1982 | 21.55% | 5,388 | 74966.4 |
38 | 1983 | 22.56% | 5,657 | 96509.2 |
39 | 1984 | 6.27% | 5,940 | 123939 |
40 | 1985 | 31.73% | 6,237 | 137649 |
41 | 1986 | 18.67% | 6,549 | 187562 |
42 | 1987 | 5.25% | 7,000 | 229129 |
43 | 1988 | 16.61% | 7,313 | 248158 |
44 | 1989 | 31.69% | 7,627 | 296690 |
45 | 1990 | -3.10% | 7,979 | 398338 |
46 | 1991 | 30.47% | 8,475 | 393969 |
47 | 1992 | 7.62% | 8,728 | 522486 |
48 | 1993 | 10.08% | 8,994 | 571027 |
49 | 1994 | 1.32% | 9,240 | 637581 |
50 | 1995 | 37.58% | 9,240 | 655237 |
51 | 1996 | 22.96% | 9,500 | 910715 |
52 | 1997 | 33.36% | 9,500 | 1129315 |
53 | 1998 | 28.58% | 10,000 | 1515555 |
54 | 1999 | 21.04% | 10,000 | 1958701 |
55 | 2000 | -9.10% | 10,500 | 2380811 |
56 | 2001 | -11.89% | 10,500 | 2174657 |
57 | 2002 | -22.10% | 11,000 | 1926591 |
58 | 2003 | 28.68% | 12,000 | 1511814 |
59 | 2004 | 10.88% | 13,000 | 1957402 |
60 | 2005 | 4.91% | 14,000 | 2183368 |
61 | 2006 | 15.79% | 15,000 | 2304571 |
62 | 2007 | 5.49% | 15500 | 2683463 |
63 | 2008 | -37.00% | 16000 | 2846285 |
64 | 2009 | 26.46% | 16500 | 1809160 |
65 | 2010 | 15.06% | 17500 | 2304363 |
66 | 2011 | 2.11% | 18000 | 2668900 |
67 | 2012 | 16.00% | 18000 | 2743214 |
68 | 2013 | 32.39% | 18000 | 3200128 |
69 | 2014 | 13.69% | 18000 | 4254650 |
70 | 2015 | 1.38% | 18000 | 4855112 |
71 | 2016 | 12.87% | 18000 | 4940112 |
你有将近5百万。如果你夫妻二人工作,配上1987年后的公司match. 你应该有过一千万的资产。
这里我想再次说。管理费其实对你投资影响非常大。同样上面的例子。假如你每年付1%的管理费。那么你现在的nest egg是:
1% fee | ||||
Age | Year | S&P return | Contribution | balance |
25 | 1970 | 4.01% | 3,000 | 0 |
26 | 1971 | 14.31% | 3,150 | 3000 |
27 | 1972 | 18.98% | 3,308 | 6549.3 |
28 | 1973 | -14.66% | 3,473 | 11034.4 |
29 | 1974 | -26.47% | 3,647 | 12779.3 |
30 | 1975 | 37.20% | 3,829 | 12915.3 |
31 | 1976 | 23.84% | 4,020 | 21419.5 |
32 | 1977 | -7.18% | 4,221 | 30332 |
33 | 1978 | 6.56% | 4,432 | 32072.1 |
34 | 1979 | 18.44% | 4,654 | 38287.7 |
35 | 1980 | 32.50% | 4,887 | 49619.1 |
36 | 1981 | -4.92% | 5,131 | 70135.8 |
37 | 1982 | 21.55% | 5,388 | 71114.8 |
38 | 1983 | 22.56% | 5,657 | 91116.4 |
39 | 1984 | 6.27% | 5,940 | 116418 |
40 | 1985 | 31.73% | 6,237 | 128493 |
41 | 1986 | 18.67% | 6,549 | 174216 |
42 | 1987 | 5.25% | 7,000 | 211548 |
43 | 1988 | 16.61% | 7,313 | 227539 |
44 | 1989 | 31.69% | 7,627 | 270371 |
45 | 1990 | -3.10% | 7,979 | 360975 |
46 | 1991 | 30.47% | 8,475 | 354154 |
47 | 1992 | 7.62% | 8,728 | 466998 |
48 | 1993 | 10.08% | 8,994 | 506641 |
49 | 1994 | 1.32% | 9,240 | 561638 |
50 | 1995 | 37.58% | 9,240 | 572676 |
51 | 1996 | 22.96% | 9,500 | 791400 |
52 | 1997 | 33.36% | 9,500 | 974692 |
53 | 1998 | 28.58% | 10,000 | 1299602 |
54 | 1999 | 21.04% | 10,000 | 1668033 |
55 | 2000 | -9.10% | 10,500 | 2012306 |
56 | 2001 | -11.89% | 10,500 | 1819563 |
57 | 2002 | -22.10% | 11,000 | 1595522 |
58 | 2003 | 28.68% | 12,000 | 1237956 |
59 | 2004 | 10.88% | 13,000 | 1592622 |
60 | 2005 | 4.91% | 14,000 | 1762973 |
61 | 2006 | 15.79% | 15,000 | 1845906 |
62 | 2007 | 5.49% | 15500 | 2133915 |
63 | 2008 | -37.00% | 16000 | 2245228 |
64 | 2009 | 26.46% | 16500 | 1408041 |
65 | 2010 | 15.06% | 17500 | 1783029 |
66 | 2011 | 2.11% | 18000 | 2051222 |
67 | 2012 | 16.00% | 18000 | 2091991 |
68 | 2013 | 32.39% | 18000 | 2423790 |
69 | 2014 | 13.69% | 18000 | 3202617 |
70 | 2015 | 1.38% | 18000 | 3627029 |
71 | 2016 | 12.87% | 18000 | 3658812 |
这个小小的1%。 让你比应该的资产少了1.4个million。