WTI Crude Oil

Several things helped to push down CL these last few days

Macro: ECB announced to front load QE due to lack of liquidity in summer months, which pushed down European bond yield. US strong housing number helps to raise US treasury yield. Together it helps to push UP US dollar, which pushes down all dollar denominated commodity prices.

Calendar: today is May future expiration day. If you long futures you have been profitable over the last month, but you might NOT want to take delivery in physical commodity. So you sell futures to take profit, which puts further pressure on price.

Technical: Crude broke 20D SMA, which is first line of denfense for bull.

Fundamental: $60/barrel is the line in the sand for domestic producer to be profitable, which will trigger more wells to get back online and more drillers to begin drilling again. It is an economic barrier in that sense.

PA: since last Tuesday's API and IEA report, oil has STOPPED responding to good news. A market not rallying on bullish news probably has run its bullish course.

Just my 2c. YMMV. YMYC.

所有跟帖： 

• 赞一个 -Wendy666- ♀ (0 bytes) () 05/19/2015 postreply 13:24:47

• very clear & informational, thank you! -3bunny- ♀ (0 bytes) () 05/19/2015 postreply 16:37:47

• I look for $70/barrel this year. -大百百- ♂ (6 bytes) () 05/19/2015 postreply 17:38:14

• I sold call credit spreads at those levels -njrookie- ♂ (0 bytes) () 05/19/2015 postreply 17:44:34

• that is the original plan, i "rent" my stock. . -大百百- ♂ (66 bytes) () 05/19/2015 postreply 18:00:45

• right, always "rent" instead of "marry" your stock/investment -njrookie- ♂ (175 bytes) () 05/19/2015 postreply 18:04:59

• i am do not have confidence in trading stock , -大百百- ♂ (90 bytes) () 05/19/2015 postreply 18:39:06

• Good points. Thx -simplylove- ♀ (0 bytes) () 05/19/2015 postreply 18:55:09