蝴蝶效应到底是什么意思?

来源: QualityWithoutName 2024-01-21 18:02:57 [] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读: 次 (933 bytes)

最早由气象学家洛轮兹提出的蝴蝶效应,不是指真实的气象系统,而是指模拟自然系统

的数学模型(非性系模型),用这种模型做长期性的预报是不可能的,因为初始条件改变一点点

,结果就会出现巨大差异。

,ChatGPT reply :Yes, you are correct. The "butterfly effect" is primarily about the outcomes observed in mathematical models of weather and other complex systems. It highlights the sensitivity of these models to their initial conditions. In the real world, this translates to the idea that weather is inherently unpredictable over long periods due to the immense complexity and interdependence of various factors. Lorenz's concept was a way to explain why precise, long-term weather forecasting is so challenging, rather than a literal claim about the direct cause-and-effect in weather phenomena.

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well, I think you can challenge him by pasting the original -金笔- 给 金笔 发送悄悄话 金笔 的博客首页 (149 bytes) () 01/21/2024 postreply 21:58:49

I have done that several times and each time it will change -金笔- 给 金笔 发送悄悄话 金笔 的博客首页 (29 bytes) () 01/21/2024 postreply 22:18:38

真实的气象系统是否有蝴蝶效应,没法证实。混沌系统是一种数学模型,已证明有蝴蝶效应。 -QualityWithoutName- 给 QualityWithoutName 发送悄悄话 QualityWithoutName 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 01/22/2024 postreply 06:01:18

一些貌似随机不可预测的凌乱现象,数学上是确定的,但随极小的扰动发生突变。19世纪就有认识了(三体问题就是一例)。天气预报 -十具- 给 十具 发送悄悄话 十具 的博客首页 (194 bytes) () 01/22/2024 postreply 06:50:17

混沌系统不局限于数学模型,很多现实物理生理甚至社会系统都有混沌特性,最贴近的譬如我们自己的心率紊乱 -老键- 给 老键 发送悄悄话 老键 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 01/22/2024 postreply 10:35:17

"真实的气象系统是否有蝴蝶效应",持续看我的帖子吧,卖个关子,呵呵呵。。。 -金笔- 给 金笔 发送悄悄话 金笔 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 01/22/2024 postreply 13:11:57

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