http://finance.huanqiu.com/china/2013-09/4318016.html
中国工业产值超美国26% 取代其成头号制造国
罗斯义 国际金融报 2013-09-03
2007年6月以来工业产值比较（％）
●一个世纪以来，美国第一次失去了世界头号工业制造国的地位，让位给中国
●全球金融危机以来，中国工业产值翻了一番，而美国没有增长
●现在，中国的工业产值是美国的126%
目前在世的人们，一生从未经历过这样一件事——美国竟然不是世界工业的领头羊。世界最新数据表明，中国已经取代美国，成为世界头号工业生产国，而且，是“远远”超过。这结束了美国长达一个世纪在该领域的领袖历史，因此，清晰记录这其中究竟发生了什么，并仔细分析它代表了中国经济发展的含义，具有重大意义。
联合国日前发布的数据显示，在金融危机前的2007年，中国工业生产总值只有美国的62%，而到了2011年，中国工业生产总值就已经是美国的120%——2011年，中国工业生产总值达2.9万亿美元，美国为2.4万亿美元。
联合国2012年数据目前尚未发布，所以笔者用美国中央情报局的数据来佐证笔者关于以下趋势的判断——2011年12月至2012年12月，中国工业产出增长了10.3%，而美国只增长2.7%。美国中央情报局《世界概况》数据显示，2012年中国工业总产值3.7万亿美元（译者注：由于中国国内统计与国际统计方法不同，不具有可比性，文中所有国际对比均采用国际通用标准），美国只有2.9万亿美元——意味着，中国工业总产值是美国的126%。
在工业总产值中，我们仅以制造业为例——即排除矿业、电力、天然气、水务的产值——2007年，中国的产值是美国的62%，2011年，这个数字变成了123%。不仅是2011年，中国超过美国的幅度在2012年、2013年继续增大。
不仅美国式微，全球没有任何一个国家可以“望中国项背”。2011年，中国工业总产值是德国的346%，是日本的235%。
除了上文分析的联合国数据，另一全球权威统计者——世界银行，该数据进一步显示了这一全球历史性的颠覆，尽管世界银行与联合国的价值统计方法不同。世界银行数据与联合国数据有微弱差异——2007年，中国工业总产值只有美国的60%，2011年却达到了121%。
因此，从联合国、世界银行、美国中央情报局的数据都可以看出来，中国从2007年连美国工业产值的2/3都不足，发展到“远远超过”美国工业产值，仅用了6年。
所以，如果说以前中国在全球金融危机前是“世界工厂”，那么现在，中国“世界工厂”地位不仅没有下降，反而大大加强了。
在过去6年中，中国工业产值几乎翻了一番，而美国、欧洲、日本却连危机前水平都还未恢复。8月7日中国统计局发布的数据显示，2007年7月至2013年7月，中国工业产值增长了97%，而美国却下降了1%。尽管欧洲和日本尚未公布2013年7月工业产值数据，但2007年7月到2013年6月的数据也可以说明这一问题——欧洲下降了9%，而日本下降了更多，达到17%。
正是由于中国的惊人增长，发展中国家工业产值对全球格局的颠覆才引起了目前的广泛讨论——至可比数据公布之日止，过去6年至2013年6月，发达经济体的工业产值下降了7%，而发展中国家却增长了65%。
从全球格局变化背后的意义来分析，中国工业产值的上涨所蕴含的深意和影响远远超过工业自身，这对于中国人均GDP的增长、人民生活水平的提高具有关键作用。因为从生产率来看，与其他经济领域相比，特别是相较于服务业，工业是最容易取得生产率快速增长的领域，所以欧洲、日本的工业产值下降以及美国工业产值增长的相对停滞，意味着中国正在缩小本国与发达经济体的生产率差距。
正是由于工业产值的大幅增长，中国得以妥善消化人民币大幅升值的压力，而这又直接产生了积极效应——中国进口的价格相对降低，人民生活水平相对提升。
除了人均GDP、进出口、人民生活水平的积极影响之外，中国工业产值的大幅提升及与各地区的对比，使得“美国工业是否强势复苏”争论结果昭然若揭——目前波士顿咨询公司认为美国工业复苏强劲，而高盛和其他分析机构则得出了正确的结论，即美国工业并未强势复苏。而中国的经济学家，如郎咸平，撰文表示美国正在大举复苏，而中国工业正经历危机，此类言论在数据面前，显得如此愚昧——数据表明中国工业产值几乎翻了一番，而美国却丝毫未涨。
然而，尽管进步巨大，中国成就却不可夸大。中国工业产值目前只是总金额远超美国，而美国仍然是全球实质上的技术领袖，中国需要相当长时间才能赶上。从全球收入来看，美国工业企业的收入仍然是中国企业的4倍——尽管2007年至2013年，中国工业企业收入已经超过德国工业企业，成为全球第三。
通过对全球主要经济体工业产值的对比分析，可以发现，与中国工业产值的巨大发展相比，美国引起媒体巨大注意力的油气“水力压裂法”只是微不足道的小插曲而已——正如数据表明的，美国工业甚至连危机前的水平都尚未恢复，更别提巨大发展。
整整100年，美国从未被任何国家取代其工业领袖国地位。中国现已确立了其世界第一工业生产国地位，这是中国经济发展的重要一步。而世界工业格局的颠覆，不仅是中国，更是世界经济的历史性时刻。
（作者系中国人民大学重阳金融研究院高级研究员，本报见习记者 陈莎莎 翻译）
http://ablog.typepad.com/keytrendsinglobalisation/2013/09/china-has-overtaken-the-us.html
China has overtaken the US to become the world's largest industrial producer
by John Ross, 02 September 2013
The period since the international financial crisis began has for the first time in over a century seen the US displaced as the world's largest industrial producer – this position has now been taken by China. It has also witnessed the greatest shift in the balance of global industrial production in such a short period in world economic history. In 2010 China's industrial output exceeded the US marginally but this has now been consolidated into a more than 20% lead with the gap still widening further.
In 2007, on UN data, China's total industrial production was only 62% of the US level. By 2011, the latest available comparable statistics, China's industrial output had risen to 120% of the US level. China's industrial production in 2011 was $2.9 trillion compared to $2.4 trillion in the US – this data is shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1
When the comparable data is released for 2012, China's lead will have increased substantially– between December 2011 and December 2012 China's industrial output increased by 10.3% whereas US industrial production increased by only 2.7%. Calculations based on estimates in the CIA's World Factbook indicate in 2012 the value of China's industrial production was $3.7 trillion compared to $2.9 trillion for the US – which would mean China's industrial production was 126% of the US level.
Taking only manufacturing - that is excluding mining, electricity, gas and water production - in 2007 China's output was 62% of the US level, by 2011 it was 123%. Again the gap has widened in 2012 and 2013.
No other country's industrial production now even approaches China - in 2011 China's industrial output was 235% of Japan's and 346% of Germany's.
World Bank data, using a slightly different calculation of value added in industry, confirms the shift. On World Bank data China's industrial production in 2007 was only 60% of the US level, whereas by 2011 it was 121%.
Therefore in only a six year period China has moved from its industrial production being less than two thirds of the US to overtaking the US by a substantial margin. If China was the‘workshop of the world’before the international financial crisis it is far more so now
The trends producing such dramatic shifts in such a short period are shown in Figure 2. In six years China's industrial output almost doubled while industrial production in the US, Europe and Japan has not even regained pre-crisis levels. To give precise statistics, between July 2007 and July 2013 China's industrial production increased by 97% while US industrial output declined by 1%. Industrial production data for July is not yet available for the EU and Japan, but between June 2007 and June 2013 EU industrial output fell by 9% and Japan's by 17%.
Figure 2
It is this enormous rise in China's output which also drove the much discussed global shift in industrial production in favor of developing countries - in the six year period to June 2013, the latest date for which combined data is available, industrial production in advanced economies fell by 7% while output in developing economies rose by 65%.
As is clear from Figure 3, China accounted for the overwhelming bulk of the increase in the developing economies. Industrial production in Latin America rose by 5%, in Africa and the Middle East by 6%, and in Eastern Europe by 10%. But China's industrial production in this period rose by 100% - industrial output in developing Asia as a whole rose by 65%, but the majority of this was accounted for by China.
Figure 3
Such a rise in China's industrial production has consequences spreading far beyond industry itself. Industry has easily the most rapid increase in productivity of any economic sector – notably compared to services. The decline of industrial production in the EU and Japan, and relative stagnation in the US, means China is cutting the productivity gap between itself and the advanced economies. This is crucial for progress in raising China's relative GDP per capita and living standards.
This rising productivity also explains why China's exports have been able to maintain their competitiveness despite substantial increases in the exchange rate of China's currency the RMB. On Bank for International Settlements data, the RMB's nominal exchange rate rose by 25% between July 2007 and July 2013. But China's real effective exchange rate, that is taking into account the combined effect of the nominal exchange rate and inflation, rose by 31%. But despite this major currency revaluation China's exports continued to exceed its imports.
The ability of China to successfully absorb such high increases in its exchange rate, due to high levels of industrial productivity increases, directly translates into relatively lower prices for imports and improved relative living standards for China’s population.
This data also settles the dispute between who believed there was a major industrial revival in the US, such as the Boston Consulting Group, and Goldman Sachs and other analysts who correctly concluded no such major revival has occurred. Those in China, such as Lang Xianping, who wrote that a great US industrial revival was taking place and China's industry was in crisis look foolish in the light of data showing China's industrial output doubled in a period when US industrial production did not grow at all. The only reason US industrial performance does not appear very weak, with negative net growth over a six year period, is because of the even worse performance of a major decline in industrial output in the other advanced economic centers – the EU and Japan.
It is naturally important not to exaggerate this scale of advance by China in industrial production. China's industrial output is now considerably larger in value terms than the US, but the United States retains a substantial technological lead which it will take China a considerable period to catch up with. Due to a long period of globalization and consolidation by US companies, both processes which are only at early stages in China, US manufacturing firms are still four times the size of China's in terms of overall global revenue– although between 2007 and 2013 Chinese manufacturing firms overtook Germany to become the third largest manufacturing companies of any country.
The scale of these changes in world industrial production also make clear that in comparison to developments in China gas and oil‘fracking’in the US, which have attracted widespread media attention, is merely a statistical sideshow – as already noted overall US industrial production has not even recovered to pre-crisis levels.
For the first time for over a century the US has been definitively replaced as the world's largest industrial producer. Such a once in a century shift can literally only be described as historic.
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An earlier version of this article appeared at China.org.cn
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