After carefully analyzing Xi Jinping’s speech on 2nd January 2018, I think I need to revise my predictions about the future of Taiwan.
If you want to know my previous prediction, please have a look at my answer here:
My previous answer used the gravitational theory to predict the fate of Taiwan, which still makes sense. But now I am going to propose another theory which I think is more likely to happen.
Firstly, let us have a look at the following picture:
The picture accurately depicts the current situation about Taiwan. Imagine the mainland China is the giant banyan tree and Taiwan is the pale thin tree on the middle right of the picture. If you don’t look closely, you would treat this as a single tree because they look very alike. But in reality, the thin tree is a different and separate tree. And it is calling for help.
Considering mainland China has 1.4 billion people and 14 trillion GDP and Taiwan has 23 million people and 600 billion GDP, China is about 60x and 23x larger in both population and GDP respectively. The direct distance between mainland China and Taiwan is also only 180km away. Therefore, Taiwan is too close to mainland China and mainland China is too big in everything. And what’s worse, mainland China is actively competing in the same high-tech semiconductor sector, which is similar to the situation where two trees compete for water and sunlight.
Do you think the pale thin tree can grow well by itself being so close to the giant tree? Of course not. Just imagine the situation when Taiwan goes to independence.
So how can we save the thin pale tree?
My answer is: grafting process
Grafting is a horticultural technique whereby tissues of plants are joined so as to continue their growth together. The upper part of the combined plant is called the scion while the lower part is called the rootstock. The success of this joining requires that the vascular tissue grow together. The technique is most commonly used in modern agricultural technologies.
And why do we need grafting?
Grafting can help plants to combine their advantages and minimize their individual shortcomings. For example, a plant whose roots are prone to a soil disease onto a rootstock that is resistant to that disease would allow that plant to grow successfully where it would otherwise have problems. Some plants grow more vigorously when grafted onto a strong and lively rootstock, an important reason why it has been so common to graft camellias and roses.
And let’s apply the analogy again in the context of mainland China and Taiwan. How about grafting the thin pale tree into the strong banyan tree on the top? My answer is: if it is done right, the grafted tree would be much stronger than two individual trees combined.
A similar situation is illustrated in the following picture.
The scion would enjoy a much brighter space with sunlight on the top and receive nutrients and water from a much stronger root.
Yes, you can say they are still two different trees because they look different with two distinct genetic variations but they are still technically “one tree”.
And actually, this tree, has already been implanted with two other different “trees”: Hong Kong and Macau.
The New Logic of “One Country, Four Systems”
After explaining the analogy, let us analyze the real situation of Taiwan.
As a mainland Chinese, I do think the democratic system in Taiwan has its advantages over mainland China, in terms of transparency, rule of law and freedom.
However, I would also say the current democratic system in Taiwan just doesn’t work. It is just like a good tree growing in a poisonous soil, it would not grow. Compared to other countries, the key problem of Taiwan democracy is that the whole society is significantly divided between pro-unification and pro-independence groups. New government policies could not get through because the oppositions are always opposing with the sole purpose of opposing, regardless of whether it is right or not. As a result, the government hardly get things done and let alone develop Taiwan economics.
Meanwhile, the authoritarian government in mainland China also has its unique advantages despite so many criticisms. But they get things done quickly and efficiently. They select government officials based on meritocracy and experience over slogans and campaigns. The government can also perform long-term strategic plans over decades that could not be disrupted by the change of government officials.
So let’s just imagine a perfect scenario where mainland China and Taiwan are unified, and the Taiwan society keeps its original democratic system under a fundamental law just like a pseudo constitution. The perfect scenario is assuming the CCP keeps their promises in not to interfering Taiwan and Taiwan keeps their promise in not violating the basic law for independence.
And here are the explicit advantages I can think for Taiwan:
- Removal of the spending in defenses, military, and diplomatic relations.
- Financial, logistic, and talents support from mainland China.
- Industrial specialization: Taiwan can specialize their strongest industry, enjoying a market that is larger than Europe and consolidation other weak industry with mainland China.
- Consolidate consensus: Taiwan still keeps its democracy and the mainstream debate would no longer be pro-unification vs pro-independence but more like in right or left debates instead. More MPs would be participating in politics about government policies. By this way, it should boost the efficiency of democracy because Taiwan people finally have more consensus.
- Rebuilt Taiwan Chinese identity: young people are educated with core Chinese values and they are no longer lost when they think about themselves. They naturally believe they are Chinese. This boosts their confidence and broadens their horizons.
- Taiwan still keeps its free society and greatness. More people would visit Taiwan just like Hong Kong.
And here are the advantages for China as a whole:
- A better Taiwan with a working democracy would guide the rest of mainland Chinese to think about changes in existing CCP institutions. Positive institutional competitions should be encouraged. But what Taiwan did currently is the opposite.
- Attract more foreign and domestic investment in Taiwan: there exist some private Chinese firms or foreign companies who don’t like the government in mainland China. They can choose to base in Taiwan meanwhile enjoying a large market in China. Since there is no fear of military invasion or other social instability because Taiwan is backed by a strong China, those companies would be confident in staying.
- Attract more expats and talents in Taiwan all over the world: similarly to industries as well, Taiwan should be extremely attractive because Taiwan stands on the technological shoulder of mainland China and also enjoys much deeper Japanese and Western culture penetration.
- Just like the strategy in risk management “Do not place all eggs in one basket”, the Chinese should not place all the faith in one political system as well. They can innovate and choose the system when it is working at the right time. If the democracy in Taiwan still fails, or the CCP governance fails miserably in the future, they can always have a Chinese-specific backup plan.
Hong Kong, Success or Failure?
And also please don’t criticize me by citing the Hong Kong situation. Hong Kong was just implanted into the tree 22 years ago. And we should view the overall picture over a wider historical span. How about rating the development of Hong Kong in 2047 (50 years span)? Do you think the CCP is going to completely change Hong Kong’s system after 2047? I highly doubt so. Maintaining the difference actually better suits for the CCP’s interests.
There is only one thing for sure, that is more future young people in Hong Kong would accept they are naturally Chinese. This means that, although scars still exist, the scion tree will finally grow healthily.
This November, I just took the new high-speed train from Hong Kong to Shenzhen. And it took me 20 minutes just like taking a metro. Even though this is so well-connected, you can still feel the difference between mainland and Hong Kong in culture, institutions, and systems just in a blink of your eye. Are they growing into the same Chinese entity? Of course No.
At that time, I am wondering, is this actually the vascular bundles that make the two trees finally connected?
vascular bundles
End Game for Taiwan
And I think Taiwan through peaceful unification under “One country four systems” is the end game. And it works for everyone without bloodshed.
I know many people in Taiwan would disagree with me. But just imagine you are the small tree growing next to a giant tree. I know you don’t want to be pushed around. There is no other better way. All you have to blame is the destiny. Instead of criticizing the giant tree around you and complaining about how the giant tree threatens your space, it is better to think of a way to co-exist and survive.
And of course, no trees wanted to have their roots cut and implanted into a “foreign” tree. It is definitely painful for both sides. But it is only through painful change, better fruition can then come later.
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