火灵哥的power ranking上火箭排１２名

Hollinger's Power Rankings

Surprises and disappointments in the inaugural HPR (PER Diem: Nov. 27, 2012)

Originally Published: November 27, 2012

By John Hollinger | ESPN.com

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The outlier here is that there are no outliers.

 

 

We're less than a month into the season, and already no team stands more than 10 points beyond the league average, at least according to the first iteration of my Power Rankings that launched Tuesday. As a reminder, the Power Rankings take a team's scoring margin, home-road difference, strength of schedule and performance over the past 10 games, combines it with my inherent, persistent and well-documented bias against your favorite team, and uses those factors to spit out a rating. The entire formula is explained here. (These rankings are not to be confused with Marc Stein's weekly version.)

 

 

But let's get back to the main point, because it's an important one that indicates this season may see as much parity as ever. Usually at this point in the season we have at least one team going completely gangbusters -- think of the Celtics' four-year run of pre-Christmas awesomeness, for instance -- and another going completely in the tank. In samples this small -- between 12 and 15 games, depending on the team -- one usually can find at least one example of bedazzling excellence or horrific failure, but we really don't have it from the start of the current season.

 

 

While winless Washington qualifies on the latter point record-wise, the Wizards have been so competitive in their losses that they're barely even in last, and stand less than nine points south of break-even. Last season, in contrast, the Bobcats' rating was in the mid-80s virtually all season.

 

 

Similarly, at the top we have the Memphis Grizzlies , who are off to a nice start, yes, but hardly a dominating one. Monday night, for instance, they scraped past the Kyrie Irving-less Cavaliers, at home, after trailing entering the fourth quarter. Their 10-2 start isn't threatening any league records, but it is the best mark in the NBA and it has come against a very difficult early schedule-- only the Clippers and Heat have faced tougher opposition. That slate evens out in the coming days, with home dates against Toronto and Detroit, so the Grizzlies have a good chance of hitting the 20-game mark at something like 16-4.

 

 

Nonetheless, Memphis' plus-7.5 scoring margin doesn't even lead the league right now. The one that does is Oklahoma City, at plus-8.1, but that comes with a big fat asterisk, too -- subtract Monday night's annihilation of the Bobcats and the Thunder's margin is nearly cut in half.

 

 

Not surprisingly, the Heat, Thunder and Spurs are three of the teams jostling with Memphis for the top position. More surprising is that the Clippers and Knicks join them in the league's top six. L.A.'s "other" team is just 8-6 and has lost four straight games, but has played the league's toughest schedule. The problem for the Clippers has actually been the easier teams -- they've lost home games to Cleveland, Golden State and New Orleans.

 

 

The Knicks, meanwhile, have lost three of four, but their start was so strong that they still hold the second spot -- especially when one considers they've played only five home games. In New York's case, it's been a series of unrelated surprises expanding its talent base, with factors such as a position shift (Carmelo Anthony), an unretirement (Rasheed Wallace), an unexpected rejuvenation (Jason Kidd) and the bankruptcy of Hostess (Raymond Felton).

 

 

But while those are the league's "super six" at the moment, with a nearly three-point gap separating the No. 5 Clippers from the No. 6 Nets, the big picture of parity still holds. For comparison purposes, last season the Bulls led the NBA with a scoring margin of plus-8.2 over the 66-game season. If this is where we're at with most teams having played 12 to 15 games, a span in which outliers are far more likely, then we could end up with some seriously compressed standings by the end of this.

 

 

It's equally true at the bottom, where even at this early juncture only five teams rate more than five points worse than average. Only six teams have been outscored by more than four points a game, a relatively modest level of badness. In contrast, a year ago six teams did so for the full season, including the epic fail in Charlotte.

 

 

Instead, the more interesting stories from the Power Rankings come in the middle, both for good and bad.

 

 

Let's start with the bad news. While most of the teams we expected to contend are comfortably in the top 10 in the rankings -- even teams like the Lakers and Nuggets that have generally been seen as disappointments -- we do have a few exceptions:

 

 

 

Boston

The Celtics have been outscored over their first 14 games, against a not particularly daunting schedule that included two games against Washington and one each against Toronto, Detroit and Orlando. Detroit beat them by 20; they also lost home games to Milwaukee and Philadelphia. In short, they haven't been good, and their No. 14 standing and rating of just 99.3 indicates they have a lot of work to do to return to the Eastern Conference finals.

 

 

 

 

Indiana

The Pacers have become an entire team of defensive replacements, ranking second in the NBA in defensive efficiency but 28th at the offensive end. Roy Hibbert seemingly forgot how to shoot over the summer, D.J. Augustin is proving he's no Darren Collison and Danny Granger hasn't played a minute. As a result, the Pacers are 6-8 despite facing the league's second-easiest schedule. That's the real problem here -- given the early slate, Indy should be several games over .500. Already the Pacers have played Washington twice, Toronto twice, Charlotte, Sacramento and New Orleans. Somehow, they're 6-8 anyway; to the Power Rankings, they look like a fringe playoff contender rather than an Eastern Conference powerhouse.

 

 

 

 

Philadelphia

The temptation is to think that they're holding down the fort fairly well without Andrew Bynum, because they're 8-6 and won in Boston. Think again. Philly has played 9 of its 14 games at home and faced the third-easiest strength of schedule; combine those two and perhaps no team has faced an easier slate than the Sixers, which is why they rank 21st. While there are some positive signs here, most notably the emergence of Jrue Holiday now that the Sixers allow him to do something more than pass and screen away, they shouldn't get carried away. When the schedule joyride turns murderous in mid-December, the Power Rankings indicate the Sixers are likely to fall off the pace of the Eastern playoff hopefuls.

 

 

 

 

Charlotte

As I discussed Monday, the Bobcats are miles better than they were a season ago, but they're also very, very fortunate to be 7-6. Given the result of Monday's game in Oklahoma City, I won't endeavor to illustrate my point any further. They're a great story, but they're 29th on merit.

 

 

 

Meanwhile, the middle ranges of the Power Rankings also throw us a few surprises that we might not otherwise have noted, particularly out West:

 

 

 

Houston

While Jeremy Lin hasn't played particularly well so far, James Harden has held up his end of the bargain and the defense has been respectable; as a result, the Rockets look like a quality team. Their 6-7 mark may not awe you, and neither will their two OT losses to Portland. But the Rockets hammered the Knicks by 28, lost narrowly to Miami and Memphis, and as of now have he seventh-best rating in the West. They have some company in trying to usurp a Western Conference playoff spot.

 

 

 

 

Golden State

Yes, that's the Warriors tied atop the Pacific division standings Tuesday morning. Yes, that's the Warriors who are 12th in the Power Rankings, going 8-6 despite a difficult early schedule and injuries to Andrew Bogutand Brandon Rush. Yes, that's the Warriors who are fourth in rebound rate, after finishing 29th or 30th for an astounding six consecutive seasons.

 

 

 

Rush won't be back but Bogut should be; he'll be a major upgrade on Festivus and banish the human free throw virus formerly known as Andris Biedrins back to the bench. Also, Klay Thompson will probably make a shot at some point this season, which would boost an underperforming offense. All told, all signs point to the Warriors being a very viable playoff contender, especially if clubs like Utah and Minnesota keep scuffling.